环保限产企业陆续恢复，尿素偏稳整理

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; UR05 - 09 for positive spread trading at low levels; No recommendation for cross - variety trading [3] Core Viewpoints - As environmental protection restrictions are gradually lifted, it is expected that both urea enterprises and downstream industries will see a slight increase in their operating rates. Recently, the spot trading of urea has slowed down, and the market is in a wait - and - see mode. The pending orders of mainstream producers still provide support, so the price is expected to remain stable for the time being. On the supply side, gas - based production units will start maintenance in December in the fourth quarter, and the enterprises that previously reduced production due to environmental protection issues are gradually resuming. On the demand side, off - season storage procurement is ongoing. The demand from industries affected by environmental protection is gradually recovering. The introduction of raw material supply policies for compound fertilizers has cooled down the market sentiment, leading some enterprises to reduce production and causing the overall operating rate to decline slightly. The operating rate of melamine plants has decreased, with only rigid demand for procurement. Procurement in major producing areas has slowed down, and inventory in factories has decreased due to reserve demand in the Northeast and Northwest, while port inventory has slightly increased. With the alleviation of environmental protection issues this week, industrial demand is expected to increase slightly. Continuous attention should be paid to the raw material procurement rhythm of compound fertilizers, the national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary of Each Section 1. Urea Basis Structure - The section may involve the market prices of small - particle urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of the main continuous contracts in Shandong and Henan, the price of the main continuous contract of urea, and the price spreads between different contract months (1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads) [7][8][10] 2. Urea Production - It may cover the weekly production of urea and the loss of production due to plant maintenance [19] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - This part includes the production cost, spot production profit, on - paper production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [27][28][29] 4. Urea Offshore Price and Export Profit - The section contains the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB price of small - particle urea in China, the CFR price of large - particle urea in China, the price difference between the Baltic Sea FOB and China FOB, the price difference between the Southeast Asian CFR and China FOB, urea export profit, and on - paper export profit [34][40][42] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - It involves the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine, and the number of days of pending orders [51][52] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - This part includes the upstream in - factory inventory, port inventory, the number of days of raw material inventory of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, the trading volume, and the open interest of the main contract [55][58][65] Market Data Price and Basis - On December 22, 2025, the closing price of the main urea contract was 1,698 yuan/ton (+1). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,690 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong it was 1,730 yuan/ton (+20), and in Jiangsu it was 1,720 yuan/ton (+20). The price of small - block anthracite was 820 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was 32 yuan/ton (+19), in Henan it was - 8 yuan/ton (-1), and in Jiangsu it was 22 yuan/ton (+19). The production profit of urea was 151 yuan/ton (+20), and the export profit was 846 yuan/ton (+17) [1] Supply Side - As of December 22, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 80.69% (unchanged). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 117.97 million tons (-5.45 million tons), and the inventory of port samples was 13.80 million tons (+1.50 million tons) [1] Demand Side - As of December 22, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 39.37% (-1.25%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 58.55% (-3.31%), and the number of days of advance orders for urea enterprises was 6.24 days (-0.70 days) [1]