对二甲苯：不追高，高位震荡市， PTA：不追高，高位震荡市， MEG：趋势偏弱

Report Summary of Futures Market Analysis 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Do not chase highs, expect a high-level volatile market [1] - PTA: Do not chase highs, expect a high-level volatile market [1] - MEG: Trend is weakening [1] 2. Core Views - PX: Unilateral price trend is strong, squeezing downstream profits. Short-term rapid increase in PX, focus on the turning point of downstream polyester operating load. Do not chase highs in the short term [9]. - PTA: Do not chase highs in the short term, go long on PTA and short on PF/PR. Yisheng Ningbo plant restarts as planned. Fuhai's new bottle chip plant goes into production. Do not chase highs in the short term [9]. - MEG: Unilateral market is oscillating, and the medium-term trend remains weak. Although the price of 3,600 yuan/ton has reached the cost line of most production facilities, the domestic ethylene glycol facilities are still resilient, and the operating rate has rebounded to 72%. Huayi 20 restarts this week. Polyester operating rate remains at 91.2% this week, and the restart of plants such as Sanfangxiang and China Resources Zhuhai will boost the load next week. Overall, if the polyester load decreases due to profit pressure, the supply-demand pressure of MEG will continue to rise, so it is difficult for ethylene glycol to rise in the medium term [9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Quotes - Futures Prices: On the previous trading day, the closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC were 7,258, 5,040, 3,735, 6,432, and 437.9 respectively, with changes of 188, 158, -3, 140, and 11.3, and percentage changes of 2.66%, 3.24%, -0.08%, 2.23%, and 2.65% [2]. - Spot Prices: The previous day's spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were $893/ton, 4,882 yuan/ton, 3,615 yuan/ton, $539.88/ton, and $62.45/barrel respectively, with changes of $26, 117 yuan, -10 yuan, $9, and $1.29 [2]. - Spot Processing Fees: The previous day's processing fees for PX - naphtha, PTA, staple fiber, bottle chips, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil were 335.45, 150.47, 221.69, 40.59, and -4.23 respectively, with changes of 30.34, -28.15, -24.11, -61.21, and 0.11 [2]. Market Dynamics - PX: On December 22, the PX price rose sharply. Two February Asian spot transactions were at 893 and 891, and three March Asian spot transactions were all at 893. The PX valuation on December 22 was $892/ton, up $26 from last Friday. The Asian xylene price further rose to a multi - month high, approaching $900/ton [3]. - PTA: A 2.2 million - ton PTA plant in Ningbo is expected to resume operation on the 24th, which was shut down for maintenance in mid - November [6]. - MEG: A 200,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Taiwan is restarting, which was shut down for maintenance in late November. A 400,000 - ton/year MEG plant in South China has restarted normally, which was shut down in early December. The MEG port inventory in some main ports in East China is about 716,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from the previous period [6][7]. - Polyester: Fuhai Packaging Materials Co., Ltd.'s new 300,000 - ton/year polyester bottle chip plant has produced high - quality products. On December 22, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were sluggish, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 35%. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was generally weak, with an estimated average of 40% - 50% by 3:30 pm [7][8]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX, PTA, and MEG is all 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [9].