煤炭行业周报：政策托底+需求旺季支撑，煤价回调后具备修复空间-20251223

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal price is expected to stabilize after a recent decline, supported by seasonal demand and supply constraints as winter approaches [4][10] - The market is experiencing structural differentiation, with funds flowing into low-volatility, high-dividend sectors, while growth sectors are under pressure [5][37] - The coal sector has outperformed the market indices, with coal stocks showing resilience amid market fluctuations [5][37] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The A-share market showed structural differentiation, with a daily average trading volume of 1.76 trillion yuan, indicating cautious market sentiment [5] - The coal sector rose by 0.33%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 [5] - Notable stock performances included Huabei Mining (+2.38%) and Haohua Energy (+2.22%), while Xindazhou A (-14.79%) and Dayou Energy (-6.33%) faced significant declines [5] Thermal Coal - Thermal coal prices continued to decline, with supply constraints due to strict safety regulations and seasonal demand variations [9][10] - The average capacity utilization rate of 100 sample thermal coal mines was 88.3%, down 1.9 percentage points week-on-week [9] - Port inventories increased, with northern ports showing a 1.7% rise in coal stock [9][10] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices showed a stable upward trend, supported by low inventory levels and limited supply increases [21][22] - The average capacity utilization rate of 88 sample coking coal mines was 83.2%, with a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points [21] - The market remains in a demand lull, but some improvement in steel mill operations has been noted [21][22] Shipping Situation - The number of anchored vessels decreased, and shipping prices fell across major routes [30] - The average shipping price from Qinhuangdao to Guangzhou was 39.25 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline [30] Industry News - Shanxi Province has produced 2.9 billion tons of coal over the past five years, with a significant portion allocated for energy supply [33] - Indonesia plans to impose a 1% to 5% export tax on coal starting in 2026 to enhance fiscal revenue [34] - The National Mine Safety Administration is focusing on safety measures to ensure high-quality development in the mining sector [33]