Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, domestic and international copper prices fluctuated narrowly, with domestic refined copper spot imports remaining in a loss. The Fed officials have significant differences in the expected interest rate cuts next year, and the market focuses on whether the new Fed chairman can maintain the independence of monetary policy. China's LPR has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months. The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark has been set at $0/ton and $0/cents per pound. LME copper inventory decreased by 2,650 tons, Comex inventory increased by 4,247 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 2,803 tons. With the rise in copper prices, downstream procurement became cautious. Under the loose macro - environment, copper maintains a strong trend. Fundamentally, low inventory and demand resilience support the price, but high prices may suppress some physical purchases. It is recommended to buy on dips but not to chase high prices [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina fluctuated strongly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly. Several mines increased shipments and large - scale mines resumed production, supporting near - and long - term ore arrivals. Due to the lack of profit in Xinjiang delivery warehouses, warehouse receipts began to flow out, and the increase in imported alumina continued to put pressure on spot alumina. Alumina continued to decline and converged with futures, and the high spot premium continued to narrow. Aluminum ingots with shipping difficulties in Xinjiang may be concentrated in warehouses, facing the pressure of inventory accumulation. After the macro - sentiment is priced in, the upward momentum of aluminum prices is relatively weak, and it will continue to oscillate at a high level [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel rose 2.42% and Shanghai nickel rose 2.82%. LME nickel inventory decreased by 162 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1,320 tons. The Indonesian nickel miners' association plans to significantly reduce nickel ore production in 2026, and the government plans to revise the calculation formula of the nickel commodity's mineral benchmark price. Fundamentally, the domestic social inventory of primary nickel increased slightly, and LME inventory decreased. News boosted nickel prices, but attention should be paid to the actual implementation, and caution should be exercised when chasing high prices [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Research Views - Copper: Overnight price fluctuations, macro - uncertainties, new processing fee benchmark, inventory changes, and downstream procurement caution. Under the loose macro - environment, copper shows a strong trend, but high prices may affect demand. It is recommended to buy on dips [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy price trends, supply - side changes such as mine shipments and warehouse receipt flows, and the pressure on inventory accumulation. Aluminum prices will continue to oscillate at a high level [1][2]. - Nickel: Price increases, inventory changes, news - related production reduction plans and benchmark price formula revisions. News boosts prices, but caution is needed [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: On December 22, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 93,665 yuan/ton, up 1,345 yuan from December 19. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 2,803 tons, and the total inventory increased by 6,416 tons. The active contract import loss decreased by 1,185.9 yuan [5]. - Aluminum: On December 22, 2025, the Wuxi quotation was 21,930 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan from December 19. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 100 tons, and the total inventory increased by 515 tons. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 1.2 tons, and that of alumina increased by 2.9 tons [6]. - Nickel: On December 22, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 125,125 yuan/ton, up 1,725 yuan from December 19. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1,320 tons, and the total inventory increased by 603 tons. The social inventory of nickel increased by 2,122 tons [6]. - Zinc: On December 22, 2025, the main settlement price was 23,075 yuan/ton, up 0.3% from December 19. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.07 tons [8]. - Tin: On December 22, 2025, the main settlement price was 342,040 yuan/ton, up 0.9% from December 19. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE inventory increased by 704 tons [8]. 3. Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][10][12] - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts show the spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [18][23][24] - LME Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [26][28][30] - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [33][35][37] - Social Inventory: Charts show the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [39][41][43] - Smelting Profit: Charts show the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [46][48][50] 4. Introduction of the Non - Ferrous Metals Team - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, and a gold intermediate investment analyst. He has over a decade of commodity research experience and his team has won awards [53]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [53]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [54].
有色商品日报-20251223
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-12-23 05:09