港股、海外周观察：“圣诞行情”来了？

Group 1 - The report suggests that the Hong Kong stock market may experience a short-term rally, but it is advisable to maintain a cautious stance. The current position is considered attractive for medium to long-term allocation [1] - There are indications of a potential "Christmas rally" in the US stock market, particularly in technology stocks, which may resonate with Hong Kong's tech sector. However, the unlocking of shares may still create disturbances in the Hong Kong market [1][3] - The report expresses concerns about the potential for a pullback in US tech stocks in January, influenced by the IEEPA Act's legal challenges and cautious investor sentiment regarding upcoming earnings reports [1][2] Group 2 - The US stock market showed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq rising by 0.5% and the Dow Jones falling by 0.7%. The report highlights that materials and financial sectors led the gains, while energy and consumer staples lagged [1] - Inflation data from November indicates a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, lower than expected, with core CPI rising by 2.6%, suggesting a potential easing of inflationary pressures [2] - The employment market in the US continues to cool, with November non-farm payrolls adding 64,000 jobs, slightly above expectations, but the unemployment rate has risen to its highest level since September 2021 [2] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the revival of confidence in AI, citing strong earnings from Micron, which saw a 69% increase in DRAM chip revenue, indicating sustained demand for AI components [3] - TikTok's agreement to sell its US operations to a consortium led by Oracle and Silver Lake is noted as a positive development for Oracle's cloud service revenue, providing stability for its non-AI business [3] - The report anticipates a seasonal increase in market activity as the holiday season approaches, with a decrease in volatility and a potential for a "Christmas rally" [6][7] Group 4 - The report indicates that the US stock market is expected to return to a trajectory driven by economic fundamentals and corporate earnings resilience, with macro policies supporting strong economic growth [7] - The report discusses the ongoing investment in AI as a catalyst for tech sector prosperity, suggesting that the current market rally is primarily driven by sustained profit growth rather than speculative bubbles [7] - The report notes that gold ETFs have seen mixed inflows, with SPDR Gold Trust experiencing a $374 million increase, while other ETFs saw outflows, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards gold [8]