碳酸锂日报：江西锂矿再生环评事端，期货盘面大幅抢跑上行-20251223

Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contract and Basis: The main contract price of carbonate lithium increased from 111,400 yuan/ton on December 19, 2025, to 114,380 yuan/ton on December 22, 2025, with a 2.68% increase, indicating a slight price increase. The basis weakened from -11,800 yuan/ton to -13,580 yuan/ton, with a 15.08% decline [1][40]. - Open Interest and Trading Volume: The open interest slightly increased from 668,829 lots to 671,889 lots, with a 0.46% increase, showing an expansion in open interest. The trading volume increased from 928,963 lots to 1,007,441 lots, with an 8.45% increase, indicating an expansion in trading volume [1][40]. *** Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Change Analysis - Supply Side: The price of spodumene concentrate rose from 10,800 yuan/ton on December 19, 2025, to 11,025 yuan/ton on December 22, 2025, with a 2.08% increase, indicating rising raw material costs. The price of lepidolite concentrate remained flat. The capacity utilization rate of carbonate lithium remained stable at 83.52%. In terms of imports, the import volume of spodumene in November 2025 increased by 12% month-on-month to 729,000 physical tons, mainly from a 44% increase in Australia, but decreased from other sources. This implies that the supply side may face structural tightness, but overall supply has increased [2][41]. - Demand Side: The prices of downstream products such as power-type ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased slightly, indicating stable demand. The new energy vehicle sales data (from December 1 - 14) decreased slightly year-on-year but increased month-on-month. The progress of solid-state batteries may boost future demand expectations. Wanrun New Energy upgraded its production line to meet the demand for high-compaction lithium iron phosphate, indicating a shift in demand towards high-end products. The cell prices increased slightly or remained flat, reflecting stable demand [2][41]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: The inventory of carbonate lithium decreased from 111,469 physical tons on December 12, 2025, to 110,425 physical tons on December 19, 2025, with a 0.94% decline, showing a slight decrease in inventory. The warehouse receipt data was not directly provided, but from the inventory trend, the supply is slightly tight [2][41]. *** Price Trend Judgment It is expected that the carbonate lithium futures price may continue to fluctuate upward in the next one to two weeks. The supply side is supported by rising raw material costs, and the demand side is stable. However, caution should be exercised regarding the cautious purchasing attitude of downstream buyers [3][46].