Yin He Zheng Quan·2025-12-23 08:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the construction industry [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market and promote high-quality urban renewal, with a focus on increasing central budget investments and optimizing local government special bond usage [3][4] - It highlights a significant decline in fixed asset investment and real estate sales, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.9% in real estate investment and 7.8% in sales area from January to November 2025 [3][48] - The construction industry is expected to see a recovery in order volumes and market expectations, with the construction PMI rising to 49.6 in November 2025 [6][7] Summary by Sections 1. New Orders and Market Expectations in the Construction Industry - The construction PMI increased to 49.6 in November, indicating a slight recovery in industry sentiment [6][7] - The new orders index rose to 46.1, reflecting improved market expectations [7] 2. Fixed Asset Investment Growth Slows - Fixed asset investment from January to November 2025 totaled 444,035 billion yuan, down 2.6% year-on-year, with private investment declining by 5.3% [3][16] - Infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water) decreased by 1.1% year-on-year [16] 3. Infrastructure Investment Growth Continues to Decline - Broad infrastructure investment growth was recorded at 0.13%, a decrease of 1.38 percentage points from the previous month [27] - Specific sectors like transportation and public facilities saw declines, with water management investment down by 6.3% [31][29] 4. Real Estate Investment and Sales Area Growth Decline - Real estate investment fell by 15.9% year-on-year, with sales area down by 7.8% [48] - New housing starts decreased by 20.5%, and completion rates also fell, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [49][48] 5. Promoting Investment Stabilization - The report suggests that the construction industry is experiencing increased concentration and is currently valued at historical low levels, indicating potential for recovery [3][4] - It recommends focusing on urban renewal, infrastructure projects, and high-dividend stocks as key investment themes [3]