瑞达期货鸡蛋产业日报-20251223

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. The short - term near - month contracts may be in a wide - range shock state, and investors can try to go long on the far - month contracts with a light position [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active contract for eggs is 2,876 yuan/500 kilograms, down 12 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders for eggs is - 44,712 lots, up 4,875 lots [2] - The monthly spread (5 - 9) of egg futures is - 505 yuan/500 kilograms, up 7 yuan; the futures open interest of the active contract for eggs is 190,357 lots, up 4,038 lots [2] - The registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is 0 lots, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.04 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is 169 yuan/500 kilograms, up 2 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The laying hen inventory index nationwide is 114.24 (2015 = 100), down 1.02; the culled laying hen index nationwide is 114.44 (2015 = 100), down 10.19 [2] - The average price of layer chicks in the main producing areas is 2.8 yuan/chick, unchanged; the new chick index nationwide is 67.09 (2015 = 100), down 9.56 [2] - The average price of layer compound feed is 2.8 yuan/kg, unchanged; the layer farming profit is - 0.36 yuan/hen, unchanged [2] - The average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas is 7.9 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan; the average age of culled chickens nationwide is 510 days, up 3 days [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.53 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.83 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] - The average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.96 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.12 days, up 0.02 days [2] - The weekly inventory in the production link is 1 day, down 0.01 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13,394.53 tons, up 178.74 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7,023 tons, down 104 tons [2] Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong, Hebei, Guangdong, and Beijing in the main producing areas remained unchanged from the previous day [2] - The continuous losses of the farming end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the number of old hens culled. The laying hen inventory has slightly declined, and the market atmosphere has improved slightly [2] Viewpoint Summary - The spot price remains low, the farming end is still in a loss state, and the market's enthusiasm for replenishment is poor, which is beneficial to the long - term price. However, the current inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level, the culling of old hens has slowed down slightly, and the high production capacity still restricts the performance of the near - month market price [2]