瑞达期货塑料产业日报-20251223

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - L2605 oscillated with a slight upward trend, closing at 6,296 yuan/ton. Last week, new maintenance devices were added, leading to a decline in PE production and capacity utilization. The downstream开工率 of PE decreased, and factory and social inventories accumulated, slowing down the overall inventory reduction. The costs of oil - and coal - based processes decreased, and profits improved slightly. With no new maintenance or restart devices this week, the impact of previous shutdown capacity may lead to a further decline in PE production and capacity utilization. From December to January next year, continuous capacity release is expected, and the impact of device maintenance is relatively low, so the industry is expected to remain in a high - supply stage. Due to the off - season of agricultural film demand and limited follow - up demand for packaging film, it is difficult to form demand support. Considering the significant increase in international oil prices due to the deterioration of the geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela, the short - term L2605 is expected to oscillate weakly [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract was 6,296 yuan/ton, with a change of 56; the 1 - month contract was 6,246 yuan/ton, up 60; the 5 - month contract was 6,296 yuan/ton, up 56; the 9 - month contract was 6,335 yuan/ton, up 55 [2]. - Trading volume and open interest: The trading volume was 666,834 lots, down 2,061; the open interest was 581,559 lots, down 24,483 [2]. - Spread and position data: The 1 - 5 spread was - 50, up 4; the long position of the top 20 futures holders was 486,759 lots, down 15,078; the short position was 588,512 lots, down 20,631; the net long position was - 101,753 lots, up 5,553 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - LLDPE prices: The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6,323.91 yuan/ton, down 63.91; in East China, it was 6,397.21 yuan/ton, down 93.03 [2]. - Basis: The basis was 27.91, down 119.92 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Naphtha prices: The FOB middle - price of naphtha in Singapore was 57.51 US dollars per barrel, up 0.84; the CFR middle - price of naphtha in Japan was 539.88 US dollars per ton, up 9 [2]. - Ethylene prices: The CFR middle - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 726 US dollars per ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 746 US dollars per ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - PE production and capacity utilization: From December 12th to 18th, the total PE production in China was 679,600 tons, a decrease of 0.29% from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate of PE production enterprises was 83.86%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points from the previous period [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Downstream开工率: The开工率 of PE packaging film was 48.96% (weekly), down 0.63; the开工率 of PE pipes was 31% (weekly), unchanged; the开工率 of PE agricultural film was 45.18% (weekly), down 1.22 [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 13.82%, up 0.16; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.99%, down 0.19; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 14.5%, up 1.69; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 14.48%, up 1.69 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Inventory: As of December 17th, the sample inventory of Chinese PE production enterprises was 488,700 tons, an increase of 3.65% from the previous period; as of December 12th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 468,700 tons, an increase of 2.67% from the previous period [2]. - Cost and profit: From December 3rd to 19th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 2.86% to 6,937 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 182.71 yuan/ton to - 287.29 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 3.88% to 6,575 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 25.71 yuan/ton to - 41.14 yuan/ton [2].