Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-23 09:18Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - Short - term urea factory order receipts have improved, and there is a possibility of further destocking due to partial reserve restocking and factory delivery requirements. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,670 - 1,730 yuan/ton [3]. - The compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate may decline steadily due to environmental warnings in some areas and limited new orders. The domestic urea enterprise inventory continues to decline, with destocking mainly in North, Northeast, and Northwest China, and there is still a destocking trend in the short - term [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1,721 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton from the previous period. The 5 - 9 spread is 16 yuan/ton, with a change of - 6,137 (the meaning of this change value needs further clarification). The main contract's open interest is 179,049 lots, an increase of 9,875 lots. The net position of the top 20 is - 21,377. The exchange warehouse receipts are 10,532, a decrease of 349 [3]. Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, and Anhui remain unchanged, and the price in Jiangsu is up 20 yuan/ton. The FOB prices in the Baltic and China's main ports remain stable. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 11 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton [3]. Industry Situation - The port inventory is 13.8 million tons, an increase of 1.5 million tons compared to the previous week; the enterprise inventory is 117.97 million tons, a decrease of 5.45 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 80.69%, a decrease of 1.16 percentage points. The daily output is 195,100 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons. The export volume is 1.2 billion tons, a decrease of 17% [3]. Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 39.37%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points; the melamine operating rate is 58.55%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 140 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine using externally - purchased urea is - 36 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton [3]. Industry News - As of December 17, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 117.97 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.42%. The destocking was mainly in North, Northeast, and Northwest China. As of December 18, the port inventory was 13.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 12.20%. The urea production decreased slightly due to new device overhauls, and the production is expected to increase slightly in the future [3]. Viewpoint Summary - The short - term urea factory order receipts have improved, and there may be further destocking. The compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate may decline steadily. The domestic urea enterprise inventory continues to decline, and the UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,670 - 1,730 yuan/ton [3]. Tip for Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [3].