瑞达期货国债期货日报-20251223

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 22 - 23, the Central Enterprise Leaders' Meeting was held in Beijing. Li Qiang pointed out that the "15th Five - Year Plan" period is crucial for laying the foundation and making all - out efforts to basically achieve socialist modernization. Central enterprises should align with the Party Central Committee's decisions and play important roles in infrastructure construction and ensuring the autonomy and controllability of the industrial chain [2] - On December 23, treasury bond futures strengthened collectively, with TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rising by 0.07%, 0.17%, 0.26%, and 0.89% respectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 dropped to around 1.41%. The December LPR remained stable for seven consecutive months. The domestic economic fundamentals in November showed a marginal slowdown in industrial growth and social retail, continued negative growth in fixed - asset investment, and stable unemployment. Financial data was structurally differentiated, with the increase in social financing exceeding expectations under the boost of direct financing, but weak credit, mainly dragged down by household loans, and weak medium - and long - term investment demand from enterprises. Overseas, the US November core CPI growth was at its lowest since 2021, with mixed employment data. Overall, the domestic economic endogenous momentum still needs to be boosted. The December Central Economic Work Conference and Politburo Meeting sent positive signals, and the market expects interest rates to oscillate downward [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - T main contract closed at 108.220, up 0.26%; trading volume was 98,526, an increase of 13,433 [2] - TF main contract closed at 106.025, up 0.17%; trading volume was 78,932, an increase of 14,747 [2] - TS main contract closed at 102.526, up 0.07%; trading volume was 35,332, a decrease of 611 [2] - TL main contract closed at 112.830, up 0.89%; trading volume was 140,734, an increase of 27,611 [2] 3.1.2 Futures Spreads - TL2603 - 2606 spread was - 0.17, up 0.05; T03 - TL03 spread was - 4.61, down 0.61 [2] - T2603 - 2606 spread was 0.00, up 0.02; TF03 - T03 spread was - 2.19, down 0.07 [2] - TF2603 - 2606 spread was 0.00, up 0.00; TS03 - T03 spread was - 5.69, down 0.18 [2] - TS2603 - 2606 spread was - 0.04, up 0.00; TS03 - TF03 spread was - 3.50, down 0.10 [2] 3.1.3 Futures Positions - T main contract open interest was 241,505, an increase of 15,119. The top 20 long positions were 199,301, an increase of 10,195; the top 20 short positions were 215,566, an increase of 15,505; the net short position of the top 20 was 16,265, an increase of 5,310 [2] - TF main contract open interest was 152,762, an increase of 10,973. The top 20 long positions were 130,017, an increase of 8,449; the top 20 short positions were 148,704, an increase of 12,868; the net short position of the top 20 was 18,687, an increase of 4,419 [2] - TS main contract open interest was 78,913, an increase of 2,453. The top 20 long positions were 63,714, an increase of 1,589; the top 20 short positions were 73,422, an increase of 2,328; the net short position of the top 20 was 9,708, an increase of 739 [2] - TL main contract open interest was 145,354, an increase of 540. The top 20 long positions were 132,116, an increase of 1,311; the top 20 short positions were 142,694, an increase of 4,588; the net short position of the top 20 was 10,578, an increase of 3,277 [2] 3.2 Treasury Bond Market 3.2.1 CTD Bonds - The clean prices of several CTD bonds such as 250018.IB, 220025.IB, etc. all increased to varying degrees [2] 3.2.2 Active Treasury Bonds - Yields of 1 - year and 3 - year active treasury bonds remained unchanged, while yields of 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year bonds increased by 0.50bp, 0.70bp, and 0.85bp respectively [2] 3.3 Interest Rates 3.3.1 Short - term Interest Rates - The overnight silver - pledged repo rate was 1.2547%, down 19.53bp; the overnight Shibor was 1.2720%, unchanged [2] - The 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate was 1.3800%, up 3.00bp; the 7 - day Shibor was 1.3990%, down 1.80bp [2] - The 14 - day silver - pledged repo rate was 1.6400%, up 1.00bp; the 14 - day Shibor was 1.5770%, down 3.90bp [2] 3.3.2 LPR Rates - The 1 - year LPR was 3.00%, unchanged; the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged [2][3][4] 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase was 59.3 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 135.3 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days, with a net withdrawal of 76 billion yuan [2] 3.5 Key Events and Data to Watch - On December 23 at 21:30, the US Q3 core PCE price index and Q3 real GDP data will be released [4] - On December 25, Christmas, US, Hong Kong, European, and South Korean stocks will be closed, and Brent crude oil futures trading will be suspended [4]