国际宏观资讯双周报-20251223

Economic Insights - The IMF warns Kenya and Ethiopia about the risks of converting SGR loans from USD to RMB, highlighting potential currency risks despite cost savings[7] - Japan's central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years, due to rising inflation pressures[10] - Australia's inflation rose to 3.8% in October, prompting the central bank to maintain interest rates at 3.6%[11] - Iran's economy has been in recession for 20 consecutive months, with a PMI of 46.6 indicating ongoing economic contraction[12][13] Fiscal Developments - Indonesia plans to impose a 1% to 5% export tax on coal starting in 2026, aiming to generate approximately 20 trillion IDR (about 1.2 billion USD) in additional revenue[17] - South Africa's economic outlook is improving, with GDP growth expectations raised for the second half of 2025, following fiscal reforms initiated in 2021[18][19] Political and Social Issues - Eight countries, including Turkey and Egypt, oppose Israel's unilateral opening of the Rafah crossing, emphasizing the need for a two-way opening to support Palestinian residents[21] - Ongoing conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has resulted in significant casualties, with over 51,200 people displaced[22][23] Credit Ratings - Fitch upgraded Ivory Coast's sovereign credit rating from BB- to BB, maintaining a stable outlook due to political stability and strong economic growth projections of 6.4% to 6.6% from 2025 to 2027[40]