镍持续增仓上行

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - 沪铜: The Shanghai copper market maintained a volatile trend today with a slight decline in open interest. The weakening US dollar index is favorable for non - ferrous metals, but there is strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment. The London copper is approaching the $12,000 mark, and the Shanghai copper is approaching the high of early December, facing strong technical pressure and high willingness of long - position holders to close positions. Pay attention to the support of the 5 - day moving average during the correction [6]. - 沪铝: In the morning, the Shanghai aluminum market saw a sharp decline with reduced positions, followed by a V - shaped rebound, and the overall open interest decreased significantly. The weakening US dollar index is positive for non - ferrous metals, but the basis and calendar spread remain weak, with strong industrial constraints. The aluminum price has rebounded to the previous high, and technical pressure should be noted [7]. - 沪镍: The Shanghai nickel market increased positions and rose again today, with the main contract price reaching the 123,000 mark. After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, non - ferrous metals generally rose. The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026, increasing the expectation of industrial policy disruptions and driving up the nickel price. The strong spot premium also supports the nickel price. The Shanghai nickel has changed from a position - reducing rebound to a position - increasing rebound, breaking through the high of early December, and has strong upward momentum in the short term [8]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - Copper: On December 22, the China Household Electrical Appliances Association stated that due to the soaring copper price, the "aluminum - for - copper" in the household air - conditioning industry has become a hot topic. The association put forward five initiatives, including scientific division of promotion areas and price ranges for aluminum - for - copper products, strengthening industry self - discipline, accelerating the formulation of standards for aluminum heat exchangers in household air conditioners [10]. - Nickel: On December 23, the SMM1 electrolytic nickel price was 121,500 - 129,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 125,250 yuan/ton, up 3,450 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 6,900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel spot premium and discount ranged from - 200 to 400 yuan/ton. On December 19, Mysteel reported that the APNI revealed the ESDM will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore in early 2026, and one of the revision points is to levy royalties on cobalt as an independent commodity [11]. Group 4: Related Charts Copper - Copper basis: Chart 1 shows the copper basis [12]. - Domestic visible inventory: Chart 3 shows the domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory) [13]. - LME copper cancelled warrant ratio: Chart 5 shows the LME copper cancelled warrant ratio [14]. - Overseas copper exchange inventory: Chart 4 shows the overseas copper exchange inventory [19]. - SHFE warrant inventory: Chart 6 shows the SHFE warrant inventory [20]. Aluminum - Aluminum basis: Chart 7 shows the aluminum basis [24]. - Domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum: Chart 9 shows the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum [26]. - SHFE - LME ratio: Chart 8 shows the SHFE - LME ratio [28]. - Aluminum calendar spread: Chart 10 shows the aluminum calendar spread [30]. - Overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum: Chart 11 shows the overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX) [32]. - Aluminum rod inventory: Chart 12 shows the aluminum rod inventory [34]. Nickel - Nickel basis: Chart 13 shows the nickel basis [36]. - LME inventory: Chart 15 shows the LME inventory [38]. - LME nickel trend: Chart 17 shows the LME nickel trend [40]. - Nickel calendar spread: Chart 14 shows the nickel calendar spread [42]. - SHFE inventory: Chart 16 shows the SHFE inventory [44]. - Nickel ore port inventory: Chart 18 shows the nickel ore port inventory [46].