瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20251223

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - On Tuesday, the I2605 contract traded within a range. China's December LPR remained unchanged for the 7th consecutive month. In terms of supply and demand, the shipments and arrivals of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased simultaneously, steel mills increased blast furnace maintenance, molten iron production continued to decline, and port inventories of iron ore continued to rise. Overall, port inventories showed an accumulation trend, supply was relatively abundant, steel mills made purchases as needed, but the spot price was firm, so the futures price might trade within a range. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract showed that DIFF and DEA declined from high levels, with the green bar expanding. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 778.50 yuan/ton, down 3.00 yuan; the position volume was 554,034 lots, up 2081 lots. The 1 - 5 contract spread was 18 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan; the net position of the top 20 contract holders was 4987 lots, up 561 lots. The DCE warehouse receipt was 1,300.00 lots, unchanged. The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at 104.4 dollars/ton at 15:00, down 0.36 dollars [2] 现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 854 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fines was 846 yuan/dry ton, down 1 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 763 yuan/dry ton, down 3 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 68 yuan, up 2 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index was 108.25 dollars/ton (previous day), up 0.10 dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.10, unchanged. The estimated import cost was 878 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly, in 10,000 tons) was 3,464.50, down 128.00. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports (weekly, in 10,000 tons) was 2,790.20, down 137.90. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly, in 10,000 tons) was 16,225.53, up 114.06. The iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly, in 10,000 tons) was 8,723.95, down 110.25. The iron ore import volume (monthly, in 10,000 tons) was 11,054.00, down 77.00. The available days of iron ore (weekly, in days) was 22.00, up 1. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly, in 10,000 tons) was 37.61, down 0.26. The operating rate of 266 mines (weekly, in %) was 59.52, down 0.55. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly, in 10,000 tons) was 47.80, up 2.83. The BDI index was 1,979.00, down 44.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 24.21 dollars/ton, up 0.04 dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 9.795 dollars/ton, down 0.30 dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly, in %) was 78.45, down 0.16; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly, in %) was 84.91, down 0.99. The domestic crude steel output (monthly, in 10,000 tons) was 6,987, down 213 [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily, in %) was 13.31, up 0.01; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily, in %) was 14.70, down 0.08. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily, in %) was 15.16, down 0.19; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily, in %) was 14.93, down 0.30 [2] Industry News - From December 15th to December 21st, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3464.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 128.0 tons. The total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2814.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 150.8 tons. The Australian shipment volume was 1950.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 102.0 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1694.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.6 tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 864.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 48.8 tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2790.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 137.9 tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2646.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 76.7 tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1256.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 102.1 tons [2]