瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20251223

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that Shanghai tin will undergo short - term high - level adjustments, facing pressure at the upper edge of the upward channel at the 34 position. It also suggests paying attention to the support of the lower MA5 [3]. - On the macro front, there are differing views on the Fed's interest - rate policy, with one view stating that not continuing to cut interest rates next year may lead to a recession, while another view is that there is no need to cut interest rates in the next few months. On the fundamental side, the domestic supply of tin ore imports remains relatively tight, and the smelting of refined tin is expected to be restricted. Although Indonesia's export volume increased in November, domestic tin imports are expected to remain at a low level. The demand side shows a dull purchasing atmosphere, and the technical side shows a strong long - position sentiment but faces resistance [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 344,750 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 4,310 yuan/ton. The closing price of the January - February contract of Shanghai tin is - 1,040 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 220 yuan/ton [3]. - LME3 - month tin is at 42,730 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 497 US dollars/ton. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 61,161 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 31,914 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is - 2,481 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,452 lots. LME tin's total inventory is 4,625 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 20 tons [3]. - The inventory of tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 8,095 tons (weekly), with a month - on - month increase of 704 tons. LME tin's cancelled warrants are 115 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 20 tons [3]. - The warehouse receipts of tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 8,340 tons (daily), with a month - on - month increase of 655 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM1 tin spot price is 339,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 800 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 339,420 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,780 yuan/ton [3]. - The basis of the main Shanghai tin contract is - 5,940 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,560 yuan/ton. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 25.01 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 36.01 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons (monthly), with a month - on - month increase of 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 327,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 800 yuan/ton [3]. - The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate (Antaike) is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 331,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 800 yuan/ton [3]. - The processing fee of 60% tin concentrate (Antaike) is 6,500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 million tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 518.38 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 217,930 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 139.01 million tons (monthly), with a month - on - month increase of 14.47 million tons [3]. - The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 22.26 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.5 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - China's LPR has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months. In December, the over - 5 - year LPR is 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR is 3% [3]. - Trump - appointed Fed理事Milan said that if the Fed does not continue to cut interest rates next year, there will be a risk of recession, but he also believes that there will be no short - term economic recession. Rising unemployment may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates. Another Fed voter with a hawkish stance said there is no need to cut interest rates in the next few months and that the November CPI is underestimated [3].