瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20251223

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoint - The sugar market is expected to maintain weak performance in the later stage due to sufficient supply and weak spot prices dragging down the futures market [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5,155 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 29 yuan; the position of the main contract is 508,950 lots, a decrease of 4,117 lots [2] - The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 4,479, with no month - on - month change; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 86,192 lots, a decrease of 666 lots [2] - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,067 yuan/ton, an increase of 72 yuan; the estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 4,067 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of sugar in Yunnan Kunming is 5,195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan; the spot price in Guangxi Nanning is 5,270 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the spot price in Guangxi Liuzhou is 5,360 yuan/ton, with no change [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar crop planting area is 1.48 million hectares, with an increase of 60,000 hectares; the cumulative national sugar production is 11.1621 million tons [2] - The planting area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 840,330 hectares; the cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 8.94 million tons, a decrease of 5.9335 million tons [2] - The cumulative production of cane sugar in Yunnan is 448,000 tons, a decrease of 2.374 million tons; the total export volume of Brazilian sugar is 3.302 million tons, a decrease of 903,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,099 yuan/ton, a decrease of 116 yuan; the price difference outside the quota (50% tariff) is 13 yuan/ton, a decrease of 139 yuan [2] - The price difference between imported Thai sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,051 yuan/ton, a decrease of 117 yuan; the price difference outside the quota (50% tariff) is - 49 yuan/ton, a decrease of 138 yuan [2] - The monthly import volume of sugar is 750,000 tons, an increase of 200,000 tons; the cumulative import volume is 3.9 million tons, an increase of 740,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar is 883,000 tons, an increase of 343,900 tons; the monthly production of soft drinks is 10.962 million tons, a decrease of 4.955 million tons [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.7%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 8.69%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.68%, an increase of 0.55 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.96%, an increase of 0.22 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - Brazil exported 2.135 million tons of sugar in the first three weeks of December, with a daily average export volume of 142,300 tons, a 5% increase compared to the daily average export volume in December last year [2] - In November 2025, China imported 114,400 tons of syrup and pre - mixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 108,300 tons; from January to November, the cumulative import was 1.1143 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0718 million tons, a decrease of 49.02% [2] - The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) rose 0.17 cents or 1.15% to settle at 14.99 cents per pound [2] 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - The number of sugar mills in China crushing sugarcane is increasing, and the industrial inventory of domestic sugar is in a seasonal growth trend. As of now, 71 sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing in the 25/26 season, 3 less than the same period last year; 33 sugar mills in Yunnan have started crushing, 3 more than the same period last year [2] - In November 2025, China's sugar import volume decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the progress of imported sugar slowed down significantly [2]