瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20251223

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic cotton market's supply side shows that the national cotton inspection volume has exceeded 5.5 million tons, and commercial inventory is expected to grow rapidly. In November 2025, China's cotton imports increased slightly month - on - month, and port inventory is expected to continue growing. On the demand side, the peak - season procurement of downstream textile enterprises has ended, and the off - season characteristics are emerging, with slow market shipment. It is expected that cotton prices will fluctuate in the short term [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 14,140 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; cotton futures' top 20 net positions are - 139,807 hands, down 1,261 hands; the main contract's cotton holding volume is 798,985 hands, up 13,923 hands; the cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 4,088 sheets, up 13 sheets. The main contract closing price of cotton yarn is 20,185 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; cotton yarn futures' top 20 net positions are - 1,371 hands, down 111 hands; the main contract's cotton yarn holding volume is 23,262 hands, down 32 hands; the cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity is 14 sheets, up 5 sheets [2] Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,213 yuan/ton, up 59 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 12,812 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding duty) is 13,861 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan. The China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 20,990 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 21,133 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 22,306 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,836 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 850,000 tons, up 65,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton is 90,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 140,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the import cotton profit is 1,293 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 2.9306 million tons, up 1.9089 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn are 26.12 days, up 1.27 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 31.97 days, up 0.85 days; the monthly output of cloth is 2.62 billion meters, down 0.18 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn is 2.001 million tons, down 73,000 tons; the monthly export amount of clothing and clothing accessories is 11,003,480.43 million US dollars, down 1,449,766.57 million US dollars; the monthly export amount of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 11,258,418.92 million US dollars, down 708,097.08 million US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 9.33%, up 0.19%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 9.32%, up 0.18%; the 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 5.07%, down 0.19%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 6.32%, up 0.03% [2] Industry News - Brazil exported 316,600 tons of cotton in the first three weeks of December, with a daily average export volume of 21,100 tons, a 26% increase compared to the daily average export volume of 16,800 tons in December of the previous year. The total export volume in December of the previous year was 352,800 tons. From December 4th, in the week ending, the net increase in export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 153,300 bales, a 13% increase from the previous week and a 20% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 101,600 bales, a 17% decrease from the previous week and a 17% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. ICE cotton futures fell slightly on Monday. The ICE March cotton futures contract closed down 0.14 cents, or 0.22%, at 63.61 cents per pound [2]