瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20251223

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the relatively loose supply and weak downstream demand, the inventory of liquid caustic soda plants has accumulated. Affected by the rebound of caustic soda and liquid chlorine prices, the profits of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises have recovered. The capacity utilization rate of caustic soda is expected to rise slightly this week. In December, caustic soda is expected to be in a high - supply situation. The imbalance between supply and demand in the alumina industry is expected to intensify, but the short - term negative factors for caustic soda cannot be realized. Non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement. There is a game between the strong expectation and weak reality of caustic soda, and SH2603 is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, with the range around 2100 - 2300 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the caustic soda main contract was 2219 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 38 yuan/ton; the position of the caustic soda main contract was 164,939 lots, a month - on - month decrease of 1,519 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures contracts was - 15,233 lots, a month - on - month increase of 2,243 lots; the trading volume of the caustic soda main contract was 343,667 lots, a month - on - month increase of 19,395 lots. The closing price of the January caustic soda contract was 2138 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the closing price of the May contract was 2324 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton month - on - month [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ionic membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 720 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the price in Jiangsu was 820 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2250 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change, and the basis of caustic soda was 31 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 38 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 247.5 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the mainstream price in the Northwest was 220 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. The price of steam coal was 644 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 75.5 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.5 yuan/ton; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was 175 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 25 yuan/ton [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 12,900 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the spot price of alumina was 2,665 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From December 12th to 18th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%. From December 13th to 19th, the alumina operating rate decreased by 1.11% month - on - month to 85%. From December 12th to 18th, the viscose staple fiber operating rate remained stable at 89.62%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 0.69% month - on - month to 62.06%. As of December 18th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 464,700 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month increase of 1.66% and a year - on - year increase of 52.34%. From December 11th to 18th, the weekly average gross profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 216 yuan/ton, an increase from the previous week [2].