银河期货油脂日报-20251223

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the overall trend of the oil market is oscillating, lacking clear driving forces. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying on dips for a potential rebound, but the rebound height may be limited [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - Spot Prices and Basis: The closing price of soybean oil on the 2605 contract is 7772 with no change. The spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8272, 8322, and 8192 respectively, with basis values of 550, 500, and 420. The closing price of palm oil on the 2605 contract is 8486, up 72. The spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 8466, 8516, and 8616 respectively, with basis values of - 20, 30, and 130. The closing price of rapeseed oil on the 2605 contract is 8847, down 17. The spot prices in Zhangjiagang and Guangdong are 9377, with a basis value of 530 [2] - Monthly Spread Closing Prices: The 5 - 9 monthly spread of soybean oil is 54, down 24; the 5 - 9 monthly spread of palm oil is 114, down 2; the 5 - 9 monthly spread of rapeseed oil is - 1, up 3 [2] - Cross - Variety Spreads: The 05 - contract Y - P spread is - 714, down 72; the OI - Y spread is 1075; the OI - P spread is 361, down 89; the oil - meal ratio is 2.83, down 0.004 [2] - Import Profits: The disk profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia is - 309, with a CNF price of 1038. The disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam is - 1545, with an FOB price of 1058 [2] - Weekly Commercial Inventory: In the 51st week of 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil is 112.4 million tons, down from 113.7 million tons last year; the commercial inventory of palm oil is 70.0 million tons, up from 52.8 million tons last week; the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil is 30.8 million tons, down from 33.3 million tons last week and 47.1 million tons last year [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - International Market: The Indonesian Biodiesel Producers Association (APROBI) revealed that Indonesia's biofuel quota for 2026 is 15.646 million kiloliters. Indonesia has implemented the B40 policy and plans to increase the blending ratio to 50% (B50) next year [4] - Domestic Market - Palm Oil: As of December 19, 2025 (the 51st week), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory is 700,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 47,300 tons or 7.25%. The origin's quotation is stable, the import profit inversion has widened to around - 300. The basis is stable. After a sharp decline, it shows a technical rebound. One can consider buying on dips for a rebound, but the rebound height may be limited [4] - Domestic Market - Soybean Oil: As of December 19, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory is 1.1235 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13,900 tons or 1.22%. The inventory has reached an inflection point, the basis is stable with a slight decline. The market trading is light, and some oil mills have stopped production due to lack of soybeans. In the later period, as soybean arrivals decrease, soybean oil inventory may decline slightly, but overall supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6] - Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil: As of December 12, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 336,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,000 tons. The European rapeseed oil FOB quotation is stable at around $1100, and the import profit inversion has widened to around - 1500. The domestic rapeseed supply is expected to improve, the basis is stable with a slight decline, and the demand side lacks highlights. The market is worried about the full - scale import of Australian rapeseed, and the international rapeseed price is weak, leading to short - selling of the spread and a weakening of the rapeseed oil price. The price is expected to face pressure [7] 3.3 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term, the oil market lacks driving forces, with large intraday fluctuations and an overall oscillating trend. It is recommended to wait and see. After the price stabilizes on a decline, one can consider buying on dips for a rebound, but the rebound height may be limited [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Wait and see [11] 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides 8 figures, including the spot basis of East China first - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, Y 5 - 9 monthly spread, P 5 - 9 monthly spread, OI 5 - 9 monthly spread, Y - P 05 spread, and OI - Y 05 spread, with corresponding data sources [14][15][18][22]