东南亚及非洲国家天然橡胶供应回顾

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inflection point of new planting area in natural rubber-producing countries was reached in 2018, corresponding to a decline in the growth rate of new natural rubber production capacity starting in 2025 [3][58] - It's currently impossible to determine the arrival of the production inflection point in Thailand. Although the production elasticity of southern Thailand is decreasing, the northern part is still in the production release cycle [3][58] - Cote d'Ivoire in Africa has the largest share of natural rubber production in the region, with its production exceeding Vietnam's and is expected to overtake Indonesia's in the future [5][46][58] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Introduction - Since the beginning of 2011, the prices of natural rubber futures and spot have been on a downward trend due to factors such as the downward cycle of China's real estate and increased supply. After the global health event in 2019, the recovery of global tire demand became more difficult, leading to a more than decade-long downward cycle in natural rubber prices. Recently, raw material prices in Thailand have shown strong resilience [11] 3.2. Supply Review of Southeast Asian Producing Countries - Planting and Production Areas: Southeast Asian natural rubber-producing countries can be divided into three tiers in terms of planting area. Thailand and Indonesia are in the first tier, Malaysia in the second, and China and Vietnam in the third. Myanmar, Cambodia, and Laos are in a lower tier. Malaysia was the first to see a decline in the tapping area [14][15] - Import Volume: China's natural rubber imports from Laos and Myanmar have been steadily increasing, mainly due to the alternative planting policy. The tariff exemption policy at the beginning of this year has increased imports from Laos [16] - Yield per Unit Area: Vietnam currently has the highest yield per unit area among Southeast Asian countries. Laos has great growth potential, and its yield per unit area has been rising rapidly in recent years, while Myanmar's is also increasing year by year [20] - Production Volume: Thailand's production remains at a high level, but its growth rate has slowed since 2021. Indonesia's production has been declining since reaching its peak in 2017, and Vietnam's production growth has also slowed after reaching its peak in 2022 [28] - Tree Age Structure: Thailand's rubber trees are mostly in the high-yield period, and the proportion of new rubber trees is small. Vietnam has a large proportion of rubber trees in the prime production period. Indonesia, Malaysia, China, and Thailand have a relatively large proportion of old trees [4][33][54] - Thailand's Situation: Thailand's tapping rate has been increasing in recent years, the new planting area has significantly decreased, and the area of old trees has increased. However, it's still uncertain whether the production inflection point has arrived. The theoretical new production is expected to peak in 2027, but the actual production is affected by weather and tapping enthusiasm [29][39][55] 3.3. Supply Review of African Producing Countries - Planting and Tapping Areas: Cote d'Ivoire has the largest share in Africa's natural rubber production, and its tapping area has been increasing year by year. It currently has the highest yield per unit area in Africa, but the peak yield per unit area is gradually decreasing [42] - Production Volume: Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber production has been increasing rapidly in the past five years, and its production exceeded Vietnam's in 2023. It is expected to overtake Indonesia in the future [5][46] 3.4. Conclusion - Southeast Asian natural rubber production is mainly concentrated in Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam. Areas with growth potential include northern Thailand, Vietnam, Myanmar, and Laos [54][58] - Vietnam currently has the highest yield per unit area in Southeast Asia, and Laos and Myanmar have great growth potential [54] - Cote d'Ivoire in Africa is expected to become the world's second-largest natural rubber producer, overtaking Indonesia [58]