螺纹热卷日报-20251223

Group 1: Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3290 yuan (+20), Beijing Jingye is 3130 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil is 3270 yuan (-), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil is 3180 yuan (-) [4] Group 2: Market Analysis Core View - Steel prices are expected to show a volatile trend. Although there is support from manufacturing demand and raw material replenishment expectations, the seasonal decline in building material demand and potential production resumption at the end of the month will suppress the upward space of steel prices [5] Transaction Strategies - Unilateral: Maintain a range-bound volatile trend [6] - Arbitrage: Suggest shorting the hot-rolled coil to coking coal ratio on rallies, and continue to hold the short position on the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread [7] - Options: Suggest waiting and seeing [8] Important Information - Li Qiang stated that central enterprises should carry out new infrastructure construction moderately ahead of schedule and play a leading role in achieving self - controllability of the industrial chain and supply chain [9] - The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference proposed to promote the stabilization of the real estate market, win the battle of ensuring the delivery of buildings, continue to implement the policy "combination punch", and other measures [9][10] Group 3: Related Appendices - The appendices include various charts such as those related to rebar and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, and profit margins from 2021 - 2025, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [11][13][14]