有色金属周度观点-20251223

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents weekly views on various non - ferrous metals and industrial silicon, analyzing their market conditions, supply - demand situations, and price trends, and providing corresponding trading suggestions [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Market Conditions: Shanghai copper reached a high, with strong support from short - term moving averages and potential resonance sentiment. Overseas, investment banks continued to raise next year's copper target and average prices [1]. - Domestic Supply and Demand: Last week, the turning signal of domestic refined copper spot amplified. Attention should be paid to the spot discount range. The global copper ore supply may be tight in Q1 next year [1]. - Overseas Situation: Peru extended the informal mining license for one year. LME copper inventory decreased by 5,500 tons to 160,400 tons, with a slight premium of $4 for LME - 3 months [1]. - Trend: Hold a small number of long positions in Shanghai copper relying on 92,500 [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina: The ktis mine in Guinea resumed production, and the long - term CIF price in Q1 decreased by about $5 to $66.5/ton. The domestic alumina operating capacity remained at 95.9 million tons, with significant over - supply [1]. - Supply: The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was above 4.2 million tons, and the second - phase of Inner Mongolia's Zhashan project was officially put into operation on December 20 [1]. - Demand: The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.36 to 61.5%. In November, the aluminum product export was 1.885 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.6% [1]. - Inventory and Spot: Last week, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 4,000 tons to 600,000 tons, and that of aluminum rods decreased by 4,000 tons to 123,000 tons. Spot discounts in East, Central, and South China expanded significantly [1]. - Trend: The fundamentals of the aluminum market have limited contradictions. Short - term macro factors dominate. Follow the long - term long positions relying on the 40 - day line [1]. Zinc - Trend: Last week, there was a large - scale delivery in the zinc market, and the structure changed from backwardation to contango. The domestic - to - foreign price ratio was slightly revised upwards, and the zinc spot export window was completely closed [1]. - Spot and Supply: LME zinc inventory increased by 88,000 tons to 99,900 tons, with a 0 - 3 - month discount of $30.61/ton. Some smelters had a strong willingness to reduce production due to losses, and the smelter maintenance in late December expanded [1]. - Consumption: As the price rebounded, downstream acceptance weakened. Zinc consumption declined periodically. The social inventory of zinc slightly increased to 124,500 tons on Monday [1]. - Trend: The difference between domestic and overseas fundamentals narrowed. The domestic - to - foreign price ratio is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [1]. Lead - Market Conditions: The lead import window remained open, and the overseas surplus pressure was smoothly transmitted to the domestic market. The main contract range was 16,700 - 17,000 yuan/ton [1]. - Spot and Supply: LME lead inventory was at a high level of 258,600 tons, with a 0 - 3 - month spot discount of $45.23/ton. The supply - side pressure increased slightly. The profit margin of secondary lead smelters was compressed [1]. - Consumption: Lead prices were stronger domestically than overseas. Battery exports were under pressure, but the demand for automotive batteries was okay, and the demand for lead - acid batteries in data centers and energy storage was expected to increase steadily [1]. - Trend: The fundamentals are neutral. Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,700 - 17,300 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Market Conditions: Shanghai nickel first rose and then fell, and the trading was active. Shanghai stainless steel rebounded similarly, with moderate trading [1]. - Macro and Demand: The news from the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association affected the market. The downstream procurement willingness may be strong at the end of the year, but the spot trading was cold. Stainless steel was in a wait - and - see state [1]. - Spot and Supply: Jinchuan nickel had a premium of 6,700 yuan, and the inventory of nickel increased by 200 tons to 59,000 tons. The stainless steel inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 927,000 tons [1]. - Trend: Wait for the end of policy disturbances and take a short - term wait - and - see approach [1]. Tin - Market Conditions: The capital sentiment in the tin market was concentrated in Shanghai tin, following the trading sentiment of precious metals and copper [1]. - Supply: There was no clear clue about the supply in the southern part of Congo (Kinshasa). Indonesia's January export volume reached a two - year high. The domestic tin ore import continued to recover [1]. - Consumption: High tin prices continued to suppress consumption. The LME and domestic social inventories increased, and the domestic spot was at a discount to the delivery month [1]. - Trend: The market has strong volume resonance. Emphasize the high - level risks. The supply in traditional production areas is expected to resume in 2026, while the consumption may be over - estimated in some sectors [1]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: Last week, the lithium carbonate futures price rose significantly, with active trading. The trigger was the news of canceling some warrants [1]. - Spot: The price of lithium carbonate was reported at 99,000 yuan, and the price difference between industrial and battery - grade was 2,650 yuan. The industry maintained both supply and demand, and the de - stocking trend continued but at a slower pace [1]. - Macro and Demand: The overall demand maintained strong resilience. The downstream demand declined slightly, but the demand for power batteries remained high [1]. - Supply: The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 110,400 tons. The price of Australian ore remained strong [1]. - Trend: The futures price of lithium carbonate oscillated strongly, with overall strong fundamentals and relatively tight short positions [1]. Industrial Silicon - Price: The futures price increase was obvious, with a significant resistance at 8,700 yuan/ton. The spot price in Xinjiang remained stable [1]. - Cost: The price of silicon coal in Xinjiang increased by 30 yuan/ton, and other raw materials were basically stable [1]. - Supply: The production reduction of some silicon enterprises in the north was limited. The output in Xinjiang decreased slightly, and the operating rate in the southwest remained flat [1]. - Demand: The average price of organic silicon DC rose to 13,600 yuan/ton. The weekly production of polysilicon decreased, and the operating rate stabilized in December [1]. - Inventory: The social inventory was about 553,000 tons, with a weekly de - stocking of 8,000 tons. The inventory of downstream raw materials increased [1]. - Trend: The market is waiting for the end - of - December trend. The overall fundamentals of industrial silicon are under pressure, and the upward space is limited [1]. Polysilicon - Price: After breaking through the 60,000 - yuan/ton mark, the price decreased with a reduction in positions. The spot price remained stable at 52,400 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply and Demand: The weekly production of polysilicon in December decreased slightly. The downstream silicon wafer production decreased significantly by 18% month - on - month, and the industry operating rate remained at about 41% [1]. - Inventory: The factory inventory of polysilicon remained at a high level of 293,000 tons [1]. - Trend: The change in exchange rules cooled the sentiment. The short - term fundamentals are still under pressure, and the high inventory suppresses the upward space [1].