南华期货油脂产业周报：底部整理为主，等待来年利好兑现-20251223

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term weak reality suppresses the upward momentum of the oil market. The market will maintain low - level fluctuations, waiting for the US energy policy and further news on Indonesia's B50 to boost the market. Due to the lack of trend drivers, short - term trading is recommended. The P05 contract may find support around 8,200 yuan/ton, and the palm oil may have a chance to improve in the future [1][2]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core contradiction in the oil market lies in the external market. Key issues include the game between palm oil inventory pressure and demand growth in producing areas, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy, the impact of China - Canada relations on rapeseed oil supply, and the overall sufficient supply of the three major domestic oils [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - No specific content provided other than the headings. 1.3 Industry Client Operation Suggestions - The short - term trend is low - level shock adjustment, with a possible rebound in Q1 2026. The price ranges for P2605, Y2605, and OI2605 are [8,200 - 8,800], [7,600 - 8,100], and [8,600 - 9,500] respectively. Technical analysis suggests a short - term low - level consolidation approach for single - side trading and observing the weakening trend of rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean spreads for arbitrage. The current basis is expected to be weak in the short term, and the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean spreads are expected to weaken [19]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Provides the latest prices, price changes, and other data of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot markets, as well as information on basis, spreads, and other indicators [21][22]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Likely Positive Information: The US will exempt Indonesia's palm oil tariffs. Malaysia's palm oil production decreased in December. Indonesia has started the B50 biodiesel road test, and its implementation is likely in H2 2026. Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased in October [23][24]. - Likely Negative Information: Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel quota is similar to 2025. China's palm oil inventory increased in December. Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased in December. Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to increase slightly in 2026 [25]. - Spot Transaction Information: Recent oil transactions remained stable, with an increase in soybean oil transactions and a slight decrease in rapeseed oil and palm oil transactions [25]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Key events include domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data, Malaysia's palm oil high - frequency production and export data, progress on the US small refinery exemption re - allocation, China - Canada trade negotiation progress, and producing area weather information [33]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Domestic Market: The oil market was weak this week, lacking upward drivers. Capital trends showed a bearish sentiment in palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil. The basis continued to be weak, and the market showed a near - strong and far - weak Back structure. The rapeseed - soybean and rapeseed - palm spreads weakened slightly [32][35][43]. - International Market: The international market was weak and volatile. Palm oil producing areas faced pressure, and the US soybean market lacked positive drivers. The market sentiment was pessimistic [45]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - The POGO spread rebounded slightly, and the BOHO spread continued to weaken [49]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. Import profits fluctuated slightly, but were limited. Profits weakened again near the end of the year [51]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Producing Area Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - Malaysia's palm oil inventory pressure remained in November. December production decreased, and the inventory inflection point may appear in January [55]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - Palm oil: Low - season demand and winter factors limit domestic purchases. Wait for inventory pressure relief. - Soybean oil: December raw material arrivals may decline, but inventory is still abundant. Pay attention to potential short - term supply shortages in Q1. - Rapeseed oil: Downstream demand is limited. Although Australian rapeseed arrivals have increased, the supply gap may gradually disappear [57]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - Short - term demand for the three major oils is weak. The traditional consumption peak in Q4 has limited impact, and the overall demand is expected to remain stable and weak [60].