弘业期货原周报：成本支撑下移，到港增幅较大-20251223

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The log spot price is running weakly, with individual specifications stabilizing after a decline; the futures price is in low - level oscillation. The supply from overseas is expected to decrease in mid - to - late January, but the recent arrival volume at Chinese ports has increased significantly. The downstream demand is weakly stable, and the high arrival volume has continuously pressured the port log inventory and spot price. The log market is expected to oscillate at a low level in the medium - to - long term [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Supply - The main source of radiata pine is New Zealand, and the main sources of fir and spruce are Europe [13]. Periodic Spot - Spot: The price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port is 740 yuan per cubic meter, down from the previous period; the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port this week is 720 yuan per cubic meter, also down from the previous period. Overall, the log spot price is running weakly [3]. - Futures: As of the close on December 23, the main log contract 2603 closed at 770 yuan per cubic meter, in low - level oscillation [3]. - From December 13 - 19, 2025, a total of 10 ships with 390,000 cubic meters of logs departed from 12 ports in New Zealand, a decrease of 4 ships and 140,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period. Among them, 7 ships with 260,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China from New Zealand, a decrease of 4 ships and 150,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period. The expected arrival volume at 13 Chinese ports from December 22 - 28, 2025, is 9 ships, a 40% week - on - week decrease, and the arrival volume is about 309,000 cubic meters, a 41% week - on - week decrease. In November 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were about 2.2295 million cubic meters, a 16.86% month - on - month increase and a 2.58% year - on - year increase. From January to November 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were about 22.1533 million cubic meters, a 7.07% year - on - year decrease [3]. Inventory - As of December 23, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.6 million cubic meters, a decrease of 120,000 cubic meters from the previous week; the radiata pine inventory was 2.19 million cubic meters, a decrease of 60,000 cubic meters; the North American timber inventory was 70,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters; the spruce/fir inventory was 160,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 30,000 cubic meters. The downstream demand is weakly stable, and the high arrival volume has continuously pressured the port log inventory and spot price. The decrease in arrivals in mid - November created conditions for inventory reduction, but the inventory is facing a new round of arrival impacts [4]. Demand - As of December 19, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 63,200 cubic meters, a 2.17% decrease from the previous week. Among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 33,400 cubic meters, a 2.91% decrease from the previous week; the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 25,200 cubic meters, a 0.80% increase from the previous week. Due to the large arrival pressure and seasonal factors suppressing downstream demand, traders increased their sales pressure and promoted sales by reducing prices [4]. Recent News and Outlook - China's imported radiata pine shows obvious resource centralization, with the proportion from New Zealand further increasing. The anti - involution policy has had a certain indirect boost. The Sino - US joint statement in May is beneficial to wood product exports, and the suspension of tariffs in July and subsequent tariff changes have affected the market. The EU has imposed higher anti - dumping duties on Chinese hardwood plywood, and Mexico has made an affirmative anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Chinese cardboard. China has lifted the suspension of importing US logs, but the short - term arrival and clearance volume will be limited. New Zealand's supply to China is expected to slow down before the Chinese Spring Festival [5]. Strategies and Suggestions - In summer from July to early September, the futures market rebounded significantly, and the spot price strengthened synchronously. However, due to the cautious market expectation of long - term real estate demand, the futures contracts showed a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. In the third quarter, the price first increased and then decreased due to the weak real estate industry. In the second half of the year, the near - and far - month contracts showed significant differentiation. In the short term, the 2601 contract may enter delivery at a discount and face a risk of further decline. After the Spring Festival in 2026, the log price may weaken further, and whether the main 2603 contract can improve depends on new support policies in the real estate industry and cost reduction and demand recovery expectations after the Spring Festival [6].