银河期货航运日报-20251223

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a shipping research report focusing on container shipping, specifically the Container Shipping Index (European Line) [1][4] - It provides market analysis, strategy recommendations, and industry news for the container shipping market as of December 23, 2025 [5][8] Group 2: Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations Market Analysis - On December 23, some shipping companies' spot quotes for early January fell short of expectations, leading to a decline in market sentiment and an afternoon drop in the EC index. EC2602 closed at 1806.6 points, down 3.48% from the previous day [5] - The latest SCFIS European Line index released after Monday's trading was 1589.2 points, up 5.2% week-on-week but significantly below market expectations, possibly due to the inclusion of some low - priced offline cargo in the index [5] - In terms of spot freight rates, different shipping companies have different pricing strategies for the New Year. Demand is expected to gradually improve from December to January, and supply shows a decrease in December and little change in January and February. The PA alliance is frequently adjusting capacity between routes [6] - The market has fully priced in the expectation of a peak season in January. Attention should be paid to shipping companies' price - adjustment rhythms and the timing of peak prices. The second phase of the Israel - Palestine peace talks is ongoing but difficult. There is a resumption of navigation expectation that may suppress far - month contracts [6] Strategy Recommendations - Single - side trading: Most long positions in the EC2602 contract should be taken profit, and the remaining positions can be held lightly depending on the situation. Far - month contracts are expected to be suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectation [7] - Arbitrage: Hold off on trading [8] Group 3: Industry News - In the next five weeks (December 22, 2025 - January 25, 2026), out of 704 planned voyages, 53 were cancelled, with a cancellation rate of 8%. The trans - Atlantic westbound route was the most affected, followed by the trans - Pacific eastbound and Asia - Europe/Mediterranean routes. Cancellations in December increased effective capacity by about 2%, and 35 cancellations are expected in early January 2026, releasing about 7% of capacity [8][9] - The global ship schedule punctuality rate (OTP) in November was 49%, up 1 percentage point from October. Since December, the statistical scope has been expanded [9] - Qingdao Port International Co., Ltd. plans to invest a total of 15.7 billion yuan in building two terminal projects at Dongjiakou Port, with a construction period of about 4 years and expected completion in 2029 [9] Group 4: Data Summary Futures Market Data | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume (Lots) | Change Rate | Open Interest (Lots) | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2512 | 1606.0 | - 25.0 | - 1.53% | 281.0 | 181.00% | 1890.0 | - 3.37% | | EC2602 | 1806.6 | - 65.2 | - 3.48% | 41660.0 | - 20.95% | 35004.0 | - 4.12% | | EC2604 | 1158.0 | - 8.8 | - 0.75% | 7754.0 | - 33.77% | 20867.0 | 1.93% | | EC2606 | 1331.7 | 11.7 | 0.89% | 372.0 | - 36.63% | 2187.0 | 0.14% | | EC2608 | 1480.0 | - 6.2 | - 0.42% | 141 | - 44.92% | 1199 | 0.17% | | EC2610 | 1052.0 | - 9.0 | - 0.85% | 796 | - 45.07% | 5603 | 3.74% | [3] Spread Structure | Spread | Change | Spread | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC12 - EC02 | 40.2 | EC12 - EC04 | - 16.2 | | EC02 - EC04 | - 56.4 | EC12 - EC06 | - 36.7 | | EC02 - EC06 | - 76.9 | EC02 - EC08 | - 59 | | EC04 - EC06 | - 20.5 | EC06 - EC08 | 17.9 | [3] Container Freight Rates | Container Freight Rate (Weekly) | Price | Week - on - Week (%) | Year - on - Year (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS European Line (Points) | 1589.20 | 5.21% | - 52.76% | | SCFIS US West Line (Points) | 962.10 | 4.08% | - 47.17% | | SCFI: Composite Index | 1552.92 | 3.08% | - 34.87% | | SCFI: Shanghai - West Africa (USD/TEU) | 3238 | 1.77% | - 28.71% | | SCFI: Shanghai - US West (USD/FEU) | 1992 | 11.91% | - 50.48% | | SCFI: Shanghai - US East (USD/FEU) | 2846 | 7.32% | - 48.20% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Europe (USD/TEU) | 1533 | - 0.33% | - 48.26% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Mediterranean (USD/TEU) | 2833 | 3.51% | - 24.37% | | SCFI: Shanghai - South Africa (USD/TEU) | 2212 | - 4.57% | - 38.20% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Japan Kansai (USD/TEU) | 312 | 0.00% | 2.63% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Japan Kanto (USD/TEU) | 321 | 0.00% | 4.56% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Persian Gulf (USD/TEU) | 2015 | 7.12% | 33.71% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Southeast Asia (USD/TEU) | 542 | - 2.52% | - 25.24% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Melbourne (USD/TEU) | 1263 | 1.77% | - 34.29% | | SCFI: Shanghai - South Korea (USD/TEU) | 138 | - 0.72% | 0.00% | [3] Fuel Costs | | Price | Week - on - Week (%) | Year - on - Year (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | WTI Crude Oil Near - Month (USD/Barrel) | 57.76 | 2.45% | - 16.46% | | Brent Crude Oil Near - Month (USD/Barrel) | 61.54 | 2.36% | - 15.3% | [3]