Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US corn market is in a strong and volatile state. Although the USDA's December report shows an increase in US corn exports and a decrease in inventory, the production remains at a high level. The import profit of foreign corn has declined, and the import price from Brazil in February is 2158 yuan. The domestic corn market is affected by factors such as seasonal selling pressure in Northeast China before the Spring Festival and downstream inventory building. The short - term spot market is relatively strong, but there are still downward risks [4][6]. - The starch market is mainly affected by corn prices and downstream stocking. The inventory of corn starch has increased this week, and the corporate profit has declined. The short - term starch spot price is stable, and the 03 starch contract is expected to fluctuate narrowly [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Data - Futures Market: The closing prices of most corn and corn starch futures contracts on December 23, 2025, showed small fluctuations. For example, C2601 closed at 2210, down 10 or 0.45%; CS2601 closed at 2485, down 12 or 0.48%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed to different extents [2]. - Spot and Basis: Corn spot prices are stable in some areas, with the price in Qinggang at 2080 yuan, and the basis in different regions ranges from - 176 to 174 yuan. Starch spot prices are also relatively stable, with some prices unchanged and the basis ranging from 166 to 346 yuan. The price of some starch products in Shandong decreased by 30 yuan [2]. - Spread: The spreads of corn and corn starch in different periods and between varieties also changed. For example, C01 - C05 spread was - 15, down 8; CS01 - CS05 spread was - 49, down 14 [2]. Market Judgment - Corn: The US corn market is strong and volatile. The import profit of foreign corn has declined. The spot price in the northern ports is stable, and the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area is weak. The supply in North China has decreased, and the spot price is stable. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and some downstream feed enterprises are building inventories in the Northeast. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn before the Spring Festival and the downstream inventory - building situation [4][6]. - Starch: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is stable. The starch inventory has increased this week, with the factory inventory at 107.4 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons from last week, a monthly increase of 0.5%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.3%. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is strong, and the corporate profit has declined. The 03 starch contract followed the corn price down, and the North China corn price may decline in December [7]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The 03 US corn has support at 430 cents per bushel. Consider going long on the 07 corn contract at a low price [9]. - Arbitrage: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [10]. Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations [11]. Relevant Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis of corn 01 contract, the spreads of corn and corn starch in different periods, the basis of corn starch 01 contract, and the spread between corn starch and corn 01 contract, to visually show the price trends and relationships [15][17][20].
玉米淀粉日报-20251223
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-12-23 10:08