结构性慢牛下期权市场回顾与策略应对：2026年金融期权展望

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The financial options market in 2025 showed structural changes and sentiment differentiation. The market preference was towards growth - style index options, and the mid - term market sentiment remained optimistic. The implied volatility was relatively mild, and the advantage of option sellers increased. In 2026, the volatility center may rise slightly, and certain option strategies are recommended [4][111][113]. - The performance of option strategies in 2025 varied. The quantitative timing strategy based on the premium and discount of synthetic underlying assets achieved stable returns, while the "foolish" double - selling strategy had relatively large risks [5][112]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 Financial Options Market Operation - Option Market Activity: The domestic option market had 12 listed financial option varieties. By November 30, 2025, the total trading volume was 1.717 billion contracts, the average daily trading volume was 7.8047 million contracts, the total trading turnover was 1.641327 trillion yuan, and the average daily trading turnover was 7.46 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume, turnover, and open interest increased by about 12%, 21%, and 13% respectively compared to the same period in 2024. The growth in turnover mainly came from the third quarter, and the growth was mainly driven by the CSI 1000 Index Option and the dual - innovation options [12][14]. - Market Preference for Growth - Style Index Options: Measured by average daily turnover, the CSI 1000 Index Option had the highest market share at 33.69%, followed by the Southern CSI 500ETF Option at 19.25%. The market still preferred growth - style index options with larger underlying index fluctuations, while the share of the SSE 50ETF Option continued to decline to about 6% [17]. - Position PCR Indicating Optimistic Mid - term Market Sentiment: The position PCR values of major financial options mostly followed the fluctuations of the underlying index in 2025. The average position PCR values of IO and MO options increased significantly compared to 2024, indicating an increase in the proportion of investors selling put options. Although the position PCR values have declined recently, they are still at medium - to - high historical levels, suggesting that the mid - term market sentiment remains optimistic [22][23]. 3.2 2025 Stock Index Option Market Volatility - Historical Volatility in a Similar "M" Shape: The historical volatility of the three major index option underlying assets showed a similar "M" shape in 2025, with the upward - moving period significantly shorter than the downward - moving period. The volatility center and range narrowed compared to 2024 [26]. - Implied Volatility More Moderate than in Previous Years: The implied volatility of options also showed a similar "M" shape, but the upward - pulse time was shorter and the peak - reaching time was earlier. The implied volatility was more moderate than in previous years, which was related to the increasing institutionalization of the market and the regulatory authorities' advocacy of a slow - bull market [32][39]. - Enhanced Advantage of Option Sellers in 2025: The advantage of option sellers was enhanced in 2025, as the frequency and average amplitude of option implied volatility premiums increased compared to 2024, and the implied volatility mostly showed a downward - trending pattern [40][44]. - Low Skewness Throughout the Year: The proportion of negative skewness in implied volatility of options increased in 2025, mainly due to the expansion of stock market neutral products. Currently, the skewness of the CSI 1000 Index Option has recovered to a medium - to - high level in the past two years, while that of the SSE 50 and CSI 300 Index Options is still at a slightly low - medium level [45][48]. - 2026 Volatility Outlook: In 2026, the implied volatility is currently low, and the volatility center may rise slightly, but it is expected that the peak will not exceed that of 2025. The implied volatility of the SSE 50 and CSI 300 Index Options is expected to range between 12% - 30%, and that of the CSI 1000 Index Option between 17% - 40%. Local peaks may occur in the first and third quarters [52]. 3.3 Option Strategy Review and Recommendation - Quantitative Timing Strategy Based on Premium and Discount of Option Synthetic Underlying Assets: This strategy can achieve a 23.6% absolute return in 2025, with a maximum drawdown of only 4.81%, far superior to the CSI 500 Index and corresponding stock index futures [60]. - Performance Review of Classic Option Strategies: - Bull Spread Strategy: In a slow - bull market, this strategy performs well. Although it slightly underperforms the underlying index, it significantly reduces the maximum drawdown [63][70]. - Selling Put Option Strategy: Except during the sharp rise in late September 2024, this strategy can generally outperform the underlying index, and the decline amplitude is relatively smaller [73][77]. - Covered Call Strategy: In 2025, this strategy performs better in IO and HO options with more stable underlying fluctuations, but underperforms in MO options with larger fluctuations. It may not be able to outperform the underlying index in a rapidly rising market [85][89]. - Bullish Three - Leg Strategy: In a slow - bull market, this strategy is a good alternative to index long positions. In case of a rapid market rise, the problem of underperformance can be improved by adjusting the position ratio [90]. - Traditional Double - Selling Strategy: For investors with poor timing ability, the SSE 50 Index Option is the most suitable for the double - selling strategy. The double - selling strategy for MO options has the most unstable returns and relatively large maximum drawdowns [98]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - Summary: In 2025, the trading turnover of the financial options market increased, mainly driven by growth - style options. The position PCR indicated optimistic mid - term sentiment, the implied volatility was moderate, and option strategies achieved stable returns. Some classic strategies can reduce drawdowns and smooth the capital curve [106][111][112]. - Outlook: In 2026, the volatility center may rise slightly. Sellers of out - of - the - money put options are worthy of attention, the bullish three - leg strategy can be used to replace traditional futures long positions, and the strategy of shorting volatility is also worth considering [113][114].