沪铜日报：震荡偏强-20251223

Report Summary Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper industry is "Oscillating with an upward bias" [1] Core View - The copper price in the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened high and moved low, showing a relatively strong performance during the day. The SMM predicts an increase in electrolytic copper production in December. The copper foil sector maintains a high level of prosperity, while the production enthusiasm of copper strips and tubes is weak. The market sentiment was boosted by the zero long - term agreement price of mine - end processing fees last week, but the downstream's weak purchasing sentiment due to year - end capital chain tension and tax - related factors, along with the uncertainties of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Federal Reserve, have increased market risk - aversion sentiment. Therefore, the Shanghai copper market is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [1] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - In November, SMM China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1031 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11,500 tons (1.05%) and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 1.2894 million tons, a growth rate of 11.76%. SMM expects the electrolytic copper production in December to increase by 65,700 tons month - on - month (5.96%) and 6.69% year - on - year. Copper product profits were squeezed this week, and the production enthusiasm of copper strips was weak, with capacity utilization declining. Copper tube enterprises were restricted by capital pressure and mostly chose to wait and see. Copper foil maintained a high level of prosperity due to the demand for energy - storage batteries and the pre - demand of new - energy vehicles [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened high and moved low, showing a relatively strong performance during the day. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 190 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 125 yuan/ton. On December 22, 2025, the LME official price was $11,930/ton, and the spot premium was + $10/ton [4] 3. Supply Side - As of December 22, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - $43.98/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.58 cents/pound [8] 4. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 49,500 tons, an increase of 1,001 tons from the previous period. As of December 22, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 98,800 tons, an increase of 100 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 157,800 tons, a decrease of 3,875 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 466,900 short tons, an increase of 2,640 short tons from the previous period [11]