尿素日报：利好有限，基本面弱稳-20251223

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that the positive factors for urea are limited, and the fundamentals are weakly stable. The supply pressure remains due to the slowdown in the reduction of gas - fired plants, and the daily output is 190,000 tons. The winter storage of compound fertilizers provides demand support, but the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices restricts the upward movement of prices. The inventory is mainly being depleted in Northeast and North China for winter storage, while there is a trend of inventory accumulation in other areas. The market has limited bullish factors and mainly relies on winter storage and exports. The futures market shows a technical rebound, waiting for a correction [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - The futures market of urea opened higher and rose during the day. The urea main contract 2605 opened at 1704 yuan/ton, closed at 1721 yuan/ton, with a gain of 1.24%. The trading volume increased, with the long position increasing by 6573 hands and the short position increasing by 11684 hands. The number of urea warehouse receipts on December 23, 2025, was 10,532, a decrease of 349 compared to the previous trading day [2]. - The spot market price is stable, mainly focused on fulfilling previous orders. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1610 - 1700 yuan/ton, with Henan's price at the lower end and Hebei's at the higher end [1][4]. 2. Fundamental Tracking - The basis weakened compared to the previous trading day. Taking the Henan region as the benchmark, the basis of the May contract was - 41 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton [7]. - On December 23, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 191,800 tons, a decrease of 4800 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 79.04% [10].