PVC日报：震荡上行-20251223

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is experiencing an upward trend in a volatile manner, but the upward space in the near term is limited. The supply side shows a decrease in the PVC operating rate, while new production capacity has been put into operation. The demand side is affected by the slow improvement of the real - estate market, and downstream orders are poor. The export situation is that although there was a slight increase in export orders last week, the Indian market has low prices and limited demand. The social inventory is still high despite a slight decrease [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the northwest region of the upstream decreased by 25 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate decreased by 1.07 percentage points to 78.36% on a month - on - month basis, and it continued to decline, being at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years. In winter, the downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 3.5 percentage points, and downstream product orders were poor. In terms of exports, PVC increased sales by reducing prices, with a slight increase in export orders last week, but the Indian market price is low and demand is limited. The social inventory decreased slightly last week but is still high, with significant inventory pressure. From January to November 2025, the real - estate market was still in the adjustment phase, with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas, and further decreases in year - on - year growth rates in investment, sales, new construction, and completion. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities continued to rise on a month - on - month basis but was still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The real - estate market needs time to improve. New production capacities of 300,000 tons/year of Gansu Yaowang and 300,000 tons/year of Jiaxing Jiahua have been newly put into operation. The rebound of bulk commodities such as coking coal boosted market sentiment, the comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali decreased, and the operating expectations of some producers declined, but the current production decline is limited, and the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level. December is the traditional off - season for domestic PVC demand, the social inventory is basically stable, and the market transactions are weak after the spot price rises [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The PVC2605 contract increased in a volatile manner with a reduction in positions. The lowest price was 4595 yuan/ton, the highest price was 4760 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 4738 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 3.02%. The position volume decreased by 5287 lots to 964,843 lots [2]. Basis - On December 23, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region rose to 4410 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4625 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 328 yuan/ton, which weakened by 54 yuan/ton and was at a relatively low level [3]. 3. Fundamental Tracking Supply - Affected by plants such as Ningbo Hanwha and Leshan Yongxiang, the PVC operating rate decreased by 1.07 percentage points to 78.36% on a month - on - month basis, and it continued to decline, being at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year of Wanhua Chemical, 400,000 tons/year of Tianjin Bohua, 200,000 tons/year of Qingdao Gulf, 300,000 tons/year of Gansu Yaowang, and 300,000 tons/year of Jiaxing Jiahua have been put into operation in the second half of the year [4]. Demand - The real - estate market is still in the adjustment phase, with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further decreases in year - on - year growth rates in investment, sales, new construction, construction, and completion. From January to November 2025, the national real - estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. From January to November, the sales area of commercial housing was 787.02 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%; among which, the sales area of residential housing decreased by 8.1%. The sales volume of commercial housing was 751.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.1%, and the sales volume of residential housing decreased by 11.2%. From January to November, the new construction area of houses was 534.57 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.5%; among which, the new construction area of residential housing was 391.89 million square meters, a decrease of 19.9%. From January to November, the construction area of houses of real - estate development enterprises was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. From January to November, the completion area of houses was 394.54 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.0%; among which, the completion area of residential housing was 281.05 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.1%. The overall real - estate market needs time to improve. As of the week ending December 21, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 20.86% on a month - on - month basis but was still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. Attention should be paid to whether real - estate favorable policies can boost the sales of commercial housing [5]. Inventory - As of the week ending December 18, the PVC social inventory decreased by 0.25% to 1.0566 million tons on a month - on - month basis, 28.58% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory decreased slightly but is still high (Longzhong increased the social storage capacity in East and South China from 21 to 41) [6].