2026年股指年度展望：结构为王盈利为核

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the performance of various indicators shows different trends. For example, the PPI in November 2025 is 2.2%, with a 0.1% change in October and November. The GDP in 2025 is expected to increase, and the PCE is 3.1%. In 2026, GDP growth and PPI trends also have corresponding forecasts, with GDP expected to grow by 0.5 - 2.3%, and PPI expected to be between -1% - 0 [36][40] - The performance of different investment - related data such as 300, 50, 500, and 1000 also shows different percentage changes in different periods from 2005 - 2025 [7][11][16] 3. Summary by Directory Section 1: 2025 - 1.1: The data of 300 in 2005 was 300, with a 60% change. In 2007, it was still 300. From 2008 - 2020, it had a 25% - 40% change, and in 2020, it had a 10% - 20% change. In 2025, there is also a certain change range [7] - 1.2: The data of 300 is involved, and in 2025, the combined data of 300, 50, 500, and 1000 shows different percentage distributions [27] - 1.3: It involves data from 1 - 3, related to Deepseek AI, and there is a 0.03% - 2.38% change, with 17% in a certain situation [34] - 1.4: It involves data from 4 - 6, with a value of 5 in a certain situation [34] - 1.5: It involves data from 7 - 8, with values of 7, 8, 9, and a 0.03% - 2.38% change, 17% in a certain situation [34] - 1.6: It involves data from 9 - 12, related to AI, and the end - of - year data is for 2025 [34] - 1.7: The data of 1000 is involved, with a 25% change in a certain situation [21] - 1.8: The data of 1000 is involved, with a 25% change in a certain situation [21] - 1.10: The data of 1000 is involved [32] Section 2: 2026 - 2.1: In 2025, the interest rate increased by 75BP to 3.50% - 3.75% in December, and the GDP in 2026 is expected to grow by 0.5 - 2.3%. The PCE in 2025 is 3.1%, and in 2026, it is expected to be 2.6% - 2.5%, reaching 2% in 2028. The FED may adjust the interest rate, with possible adjustments of 25bp, 50bp, or 75 - 100bp [36] - 2.2: PPI in 2026 is involved. In 2023, PPI was - 2.5%, and in November 2025, it was 2.2%, with a 0.1% change in October and November [40] - 2.3: It is related to the PPI situation from 2012 - 2015 and 2016, and the PPI in 2026 is expected to be between - 1% - 0 [43][46] - 2.6: In 2025, the PE - TTM of 300 and 50 is involved [50] - 2.7: No specific content provided - 2.8: No specific content provided - 2.9: No specific content provided Section 3 - 3.1: It involves IC, IM, IF, and IH [59] - 3.2: It involves IM and IF, with a 5% change in a 1 - 3 situation [59] - 3.3: It involves MO, and the end - of - year data is for 2025 [59]