Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Zinc and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see) [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] Core Views - The market conditions of various non - ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, cost, and macro - environment. Different metals show different trends and investment suggestions. [2][3][4][7][9][10] Summary by Metal Copper - On Tuesday, SHFE copper showed a position - reducing and oscillating trend. Shanghai copper discount widened to 215 yuan, and Guangdong discount was 125 yuan. Yangshan copper premium rose to $55. At high copper prices, the spread between refined and scrap copper did not widen further. The market is concerned about trading sentiment during the New Year period, especially the tight concentrate supply in the first quarter. Hold a small number of long positions above 92,500 yuan. [2] Aluminum, Alumina and Aluminum Alloy - Today, SHFE aluminum oscillated. Spot discounts in East China, Central China, and South China remained at - 170 yuan, - 330 yuan, and - 245 yuan respectively. Aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 22,000 tons compared to last Thursday, and aluminum rod inventory increased by 300 tons. The fundamental contradiction in the aluminum market is still limited. The short - term market is macro - driven, and the loose trading continues. SHFE aluminum mainly follows the upward trend. Hold long positions with the 40 - day moving average as support and pay attention to the resistance at the previous high. The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 21,300 yuan. The inventory of the cast aluminum industry and exchange warehouse receipts fluctuated narrowly. Tax adjustments may increase costs in some areas. Driven by the macro - environment, cast aluminum alloy has limited ability to follow the upward trend at high levels. The alumina production capacity is at a historical high, and the oversupply situation is difficult to change. The industry inventory continues to rise. The average full cost in Shanxi and Henan is 2,850 - 2,900 yuan, and the spot index has fallen to around 2,710 yuan. There is still a profit in cash - cost accounting. A mining enterprise in Guinea will lower the long - term contract price by $5 in the first quarter, and the alumina cost has room to decline. Alumina will be weak before large - scale production cuts, and the spot price is more likely to fall when the spread is large. [3] Zinc - Intraday, long - position traders continued to cover their positions. The daily position of SHFE zinc weighted increased by 3,609 lots to 198,800 lots. The annual - line position has strong support, and the overall trend is still in a rebound. The LME zinc inventory is at the level of 99,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 - month spot discount is $33.43 per ton. The squeeze - out atmosphere of foreign capital has subsided, and the zinc export window has closed. In late December in China, more zinc smelters carried out maintenance. Downstream consumption declined in the short term due to environmental protection control in the north, but overall resilience still exists. Given the low consumption base in 2025, the consumption outlook in 2026 is not overly pessimistic. Coupled with the expected resonance of loose monetary policies between China and the US in the first year of the "14th Five - Year Plan", SHFE zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan per ton. [4] Lead - The overseas surplus pressure is transmitted to the domestic market. Domestic primary lead smelters that had previously carried out maintenance are gradually resuming production. The consumption side has mixed news, and the upward momentum of lead is weak. The TC of lead concentrate remains stable at a low level, the price of waste batteries has stopped falling, and the cost support for recycled lead is still strong. The spread between refined and scrap lead is 50 yuan per ton. The domestic lead inventory is low, and the impact of incremental pressure still needs to be tracked. SHFE lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 16,700 - 17,300 yuan per ton. [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel rose sharply, and the market trading was active. The market performance was triggered by the stop - loss orders of industrial short - position traders, and the irrational trend is expected to have limited sustainability. The news from the Indonesian Nickel Mining Association last week triggered a surge in the nickel market. The nickel ore quota in 2026 will be reduced to 250 million tons, a significant decrease from the 380 million - ton quota in 2025, and the mineral benchmark price formula will be revised at the beginning of 2026. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 6,700 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 400 yuan, and the premium of electrowinning nickel is 175 yuan. The spot price of Jinchuan nickel is resistant to decline, and the price of high - nickel ferro - nickel is 888 yuan per nickel point. The support from the rebound of upstream prices is weakening, but the market is still dominated by policy sentiment in the short term. The pure nickel inventory increased by 260 tons to 59,000 tons, the nickel - iron inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 29,300 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 927,000 tons. Wait for the end of market fluctuations and mainly wait and see in the short term. [7] Tin - SHFE tin oscillated and closed up slightly with a small reduction in positions. In November in China, the import volume of tin concentrate in metal tons continued to recover, with increasing volumes from the DRC and Myanmar. High tin prices continue to suppress consumption. In terms of inventory, the inventories in both domestic and foreign markets are high. The market shows strong resonance between volume and price. Emphasize the high - level risks. [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rose again, and the market trading was active. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 99,000 yuan, and the spread between industrial - grade and battery - grade is 2,650 yuan. The sharp increase in lithium carbonate prices has led to a continuous rise in lithium ore prices. However, due to the market's lack of confidence in maintaining high prices of lithium carbonate, the trading enthusiasm at the current high level is limited. The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 110,400 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 18,000 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 41,500 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 1,300 tons to 51,000 tons. The mid - stream sector is enthusiastic, and the spot market shows some support. The latest quotation of Australian ore is $1,385, and the ore - end quotation remains strong. The futures price of lithium carbonate is strongly oscillating, and the fundamentals are generally strong. Short - position traders are relatively under pressure. [9] Industrial Silicon - The futures price of industrial silicon strengthened again, closing above 8,700 yuan per ton. There are repeated rumors about the shutdown of northern production areas before the end of the month. In the spot market, the weekly production of industrial silicon in Xinjiang decreased slightly, and the operating rates in other production areas in the southwest and northwest remained stable. On the demand side, due to the implementation of joint emission reduction in December, the operating rate of silicone decreased significantly compared to November, and the weekly output has shown a slight recovery. After large - scale production cuts in November, the operating rate of polysilicon decreased limitedly in December. The weekly social inventory of industrial silicon decreased significantly, but the downstream raw material inventory increased, and the factory inventory in Xinjiang has the pressure of inventory accumulation. In summary, the demand for industrial silicon is under pressure, and the futures price is strongly oscillating due to the expectation of end - of - month production cuts. [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon continued to decline slightly. Due to the adjustment of trading rules and the strong performance of other metals, the market sentiment has cooled down. After the establishment of the purchase - reserve platform, the market is still waiting for further plans. In the spot market, the price of N - type polysilicon re - feeding material decreased slightly today, with an average price of 52,350 yuan per ton. There is no news of transactions for the previous high - price quotations of manufacturers. Driven by the expected increase in the costs of silver and silicon raw materials, the quotation of downstream battery cells has increased to 0.34 yuan per watt, but there has been no actual transaction. The factory inventory of polysilicon remains at a high level of 293,000 tons. In summary, there is still an expectation of capacity adjustment for polysilicon, but the high inventory in the short term and the downstream production - cut situation have hindered the increase in the spot price of polysilicon. The trading sentiment in the futures market has cooled down. The increase in the new delivery factory warehouses and the maximum amount of warehouse receipts indicates that if the futures price fails to effectively break through 60,000 yuan per ton in the short term, it will maintain an oscillating trend. [10]
有色金属日报-20251223
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-12-23 11:32