Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On December 23, 2025, the restart of maintenance devices such as Tianjin Petrochemical's LLDPE led to an increase in the plastics operating rate to around 86.5%, which is at a neutral level The PE downstream operating rate decreased to 42.45%, and the overall is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years The plastics supply has increased due to new capacity, while the downstream demand is weak The plastics supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and the spot price is still falling, so it is expected that the plastics will fluctuate weakly in the near future Also, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 23, Tianjin Petrochemical's LLDPE and other maintenance devices restarted, increasing the plastics operating rate to 86.5%, and the operating rate is at a neutral level As of the week of December 19, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 42.45%, with the agricultural film gradually exiting the peak season, orders decreasing, and the overall downstream operating rate at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years Petrochemical de - stocking is slow, and the inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years Due to oversupply of crude oil and geopolitical tensions, the rebound of crude oil prices is limited New production capacities have been put into operation, and the plastics operating rate has increased slightly The agricultural film is out of the peak season, and the downstream operating rate is expected to decline The downstream enterprises' purchasing willingness is insufficient, and traders are cautious about the future market, so it is expected that the plastics will fluctuate weakly and the L - PP spread will decline [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The plastics 2605 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated, closing at 6296 yuan/ton with a gain of 0.06% The trading volume decreased by 24483 lots to 581559 lots [2] - Spot: Most PE spot prices in the market declined, with a range of - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton LLDPE was reported at 6150 - 6420 yuan/ton, LDPE at 7750 - 8530 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6550 - 7900 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 23, the restart of Tianjin Petrochemical's LLDPE and other maintenance devices increased the plastics operating rate to around 86.5%, which is at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week of December 19, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 42.45%, with the agricultural film gradually exiting the peak season, orders and raw material inventory decreasing, and the overall downstream operating rate at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [4] - Inventory: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 710,000 tons, which is 100,000 tons higher than the same period last year Petrochemical de - stocking is slow, and the inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years [4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose above $61/barrel, and the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $725/ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $745/ton week - on - week [4]
震荡运行：塑料日报-20251223
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-12-23 11:31