国投期货能源日报-20251223

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Fuel oil: ★★★, suggesting a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, meaning a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Asphalt: ★★★, showing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical factors, such as the Venezuela situation and Ukraine's attacks on Russian ships, cause short - term price rebounds in the energy market, but the long - term trend is dominated by the supply - demand relationship, with prices generally under pressure due to supply - side factors [3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Geopolitical tensions around Venezuela lead to a pulse - style "risk premium" trade, pushing up oil prices. However, the potential global supply shortage caused by a single - country supply interruption is limited. The attacks on Russian ships by Ukraine add supply risk. Although US shale oil drilling and fracturing activities are at multi - year lows, production remains at a high level this year. Geopolitical premiums provide short - term rebound power, while the long - term trend is a downward shift in the oil price center due to future supply - demand looseness [3] Fuel oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical risks drive up crude oil costs, causing fuel oil prices to rise. The demand side lacks a clear upward driver, and the supply side is the main trading focus. High - sulfur fuel oil is in a tug - of - war between geopolitical risks and structural oversupply. Geopolitical factors provide short - term support, but mid - term supply is loose. Low - sulfur fuel oil is mainly affected by the operating status of refinery units, with expected marginal increases from unit maintenance and return, and is likely to continue a weak performance [4] Asphalt - Since December, the weekly shipment volume has been below 400,000 tons, at a near - four - year low. Last week, both social and factory inventories increased, with the factory inventory ending a de - stocking trend. Although the supply - demand situation is marginally looser, positive news boosts the price. Geopolitical conflicts provide short - term rebound power, but the long - term trend is price pressure due to supply - demand looseness [5]