Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the close on December 23, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Platinum hit the daily limit, lithium carbonate and palladium rose over 5%, and silver futures rose over 4%. On the other hand, ethylene glycol (EG) dropped over 3%, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), logs, and red dates fell over 1%. Different futures varieties have different trends and influencing factors, and investors are advised to make decisions carefully [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Commodity Performance - Futures Market Overview: As of the close on December 23, domestic futures main contracts had mixed performance. Platinum hit the daily limit, lithium carbonate and palladium rose over 5%, and silver futures rose over 4%. In terms of declines, ethylene glycol (EG) dropped over 3%, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), logs, and red dates fell over 1%. Index futures and treasury bond futures also showed different trends. In terms of capital flow, some contracts had capital inflows while others had outflows [5][6]. - Futures Index Performance: The main contract of CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) rose 0.12%, the main contract of SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) rose 0.22%, the main contract of CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) rose 0.04%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) fell 0.15%. The main contract of 2 - year treasury bond futures (TS) rose 0.07%, the main contract of 5 - year treasury bond futures (TF) rose 0.17%, the main contract of 10 - year treasury bond futures (T) rose 0.26%, and the main contract of 30 - year treasury bond futures (TL) rose 0.89% [6]. - Capital Flow: As of 15:21 on December 23, in terms of capital inflows to domestic futures main contracts, CSI 2603 had an inflow of 2.004 billion yuan, lithium carbonate 2605 had an inflow of 876 million yuan, and platinum 2606 had an inflow of 835 million yuan. In terms of outflows, CSI 2603 had an outflow of 633 million yuan, Shanghai copper 2602 had an outflow of 568 million yuan, and Shanghai aluminum 2602 had an outflow of 256 million yuan [6]. Market Analysis - Shanghai Copper: On the day, Shanghai copper opened high and moved low, showing a relatively strong trend during the day. In November, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1031 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11,500 tons (a month - on - month increase of 1.05%) and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 1.2894 million tons year - on - year (an increase of 11.76%). SMM predicts that the electrolytic copper production in December will increase by 65,700 tons month - on - month (an increase of 5.96%) and 6.69% year - on - year. Copper foil maintains a high - growth level, but copper products are affected by various factors, and the market is mainly characterized by a relatively strong and volatile trend [8]. - Lithium Carbonate: Lithium carbonate opened flat and moved high, rising nearly 6% during the day. This week, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate was 83.52%, significantly higher year - on - year. The downstream energy - storage battery still maintains growth, and lithium iron phosphate has a price - increase expectation, which supports the price increase of lithium carbonate at the raw - material end. However, the end - of - season demand and the uncertainty of mine resumption need to be further observed, and investors are advised to be cautious about chasing the rise [10]. - Crude Oil: OPEC+ agreed to maintain the overall oil production of the organization in 2026. Eight additional voluntarily - reducing oil - producing countries reiterated to suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year. The global crude - oil market is still in a pattern of oversupply, but the geopolitical situation in Venezuela has heated up, and it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [11][12]. - Asphalt: The supply side shows that the asphalt start - up rate has declined, and the expected production volume in December has decreased. The downstream start - up rate has mostly fallen, and the inventory is at a relatively low level. The market is concerned about the export of Venezuelan heavy - crude oil and its impact on domestic asphalt production. It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela [13]. - PP: As of the week ending December 19, the downstream start - up rate of PP decreased. The enterprise start - up rate is at a neutral - to - low level, and the petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level. The supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and it is expected that PP will fluctuate weakly, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [15]. - Plastic: On December 23, the start - up rate of plastic increased, but the downstream start - up rate decreased. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level. The supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and it is expected that plastic will fluctuate weakly in the near future, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [16][17]. - PVC: The upstream calcium carbide price has dropped. The PVC start - up rate has decreased, and the downstream start - up rate has also declined. The export situation is not good, and the inventory pressure is relatively large. The real - estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and it is expected that the upward space for PVC in the near future is limited [18]. - Coking Coal: Coking coal opened high and moved high, rising nearly 2% during the day. The supply is in a loose pattern, and the downstream demand is weak. Although the sentiment has recovered and rebounded, the upward height is limited, and investors should beware of sentiment cooling [19][20]. - Urea: The futures price opened high and moved high during the day. The spot price is stable, and the supply pressure is not alleviated. The demand is mainly supported by the winter - storage production of compound fertilizers. The inventory is mainly concentrated in the winter - storage areas, and it is expected that the inventory - reduction amplitude will narrow. The market has limited positive factors, and it is recommended to wait for a pullback [21].
每日核心期货品种分析-20251223
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-12-23 11:34