Changjiang Securities·2025-12-23 11:38Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Viewpoints - Real estate data continues to show weakness, with a focus on potential policy expectations in the future [6] - Cement shipments are experiencing seasonal declines, and glass prices are decreasing month-on-month [8] - For 2026, three main lines of focus are identified: stock chain, Africa chain, and AI chain [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Real Estate and Construction Data - From January to November, the sales of commercial housing decreased by 11.1% and the sales area by 7.8% year-on-year. In November alone, the sales value and area dropped by 25.1% and 17.3% respectively. The weak performance is attributed to a high base effect from last year's policy releases and weak actual demand [6][7] - New construction and completion data are also weak, with new housing starts down by 20.5% and completions down by 18.0% year-on-year from January to November [7] Cement and Glass Market - In December, cement demand weakened due to air pollution warnings, with an average shipment rate of 42% across key regions, down 1.7 percentage points month-on-month and 2.3 percentage points year-on-year. The average price of cement decreased by 0.2% month-on-month [8][25] - The domestic float glass market is seeing a downward price trend, with production capacity stable at 265 lines and daily melting capacity at 155,105 tons. Inventory levels are also being monitored closely [37][40] Future Outlook for 2026 - The stock chain focuses on optimizing demand and clearing supply, with a significant shift towards renovation demand expected to rise from 50% to nearly 70% by 2030. Recommended companies include Sanke Tree and Rabbit Baby [9] - The Africa chain highlights undervalued growth opportunities in the African market, with recommendations for companies like Keda Manufacturing and Huaxin Cement [9] - The AI chain emphasizes the upgrade of special electronic fabrics, with a focus on domestic leaders like Zhongcai Technology [9]