银河期货尿素日报-20251223

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Urea Daily Report on December 23, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [2] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures fluctuated higher, closing at 1721 (+21/+1.24%) [3] - Spot Market: Factory prices remained stable with general trading. Prices in different regions were: Henan 1620 - 1650 yuan/ton, Shandong small particles 1680 - 1690 yuan/ton, Hebei small particles 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small particles 1590 - 1600 yuan/ton, Anhui small particles 1650 - 1660 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1540 - 1590 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Important Information - On December 23, the daily production of the urea industry was 18.98 tons, a decrease of 0.25 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 1.38 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 78.49%, a 0.62% increase from 77.87% in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Market Conditions: Mainstream factory prices were stable, market sentiment cooled, and trading weakened. Different regions had different situations. Shandong's prices were weakly stable, Henan's prices followed the decline, and the delivery area's prices were firm [5] - Supply: Domestic gas - fired plants began maintenance, and the daily output dropped to around 190,000 tons but remained high. India tendered again for a total of 150 tons with a February 2nd shipping date, but the impact was limited due to no new quotas in China [5] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizer in the Central and Northeast regions was stable. In Henan, environmental protection led to large - scale shutdowns until the end of the month, and overall demand for compound fertilizer slowed. The progress of off - season storage enterprises reached over 70%, and future procurement would slow down [5] - Outlook: In the short term, with the impact of the Indian tender fading and limited export quotas, the downstream resisted high prices, and the trading was weak. In the medium term, the supply - demand fundamentals were still relatively loose, and after price increases in some regions, downstream acceptance decreased. The market rumor of export news improved trading in some low - price areas, but overall, a short - selling strategy was recommended [5] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short 05 contract [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Wait and see [9]