农产品日报-20251223

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Positive Outlook: Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Eggs [1] - Neutral Outlook: Soybean [1] - Negative Outlook: Corn, Live Pigs [1] Core Views - The overall trend of agricultural products shows a mixed pattern, with different products affected by various factors such as supply - demand, weather, and policy [2][3][4][6][7][8][9] - The prices of some products are expected to follow the market situation, and investors need to pay attention to specific factors such as export, weather, and production season [3][4] Summary by Product Soybean - The main soybean contract rebounded after a short - term gap, and the contract is being shifted. The auction of soybeans by CGS in the middle of this week had a certain supporting effect on the price, and the price was stable and strong. It is necessary to continuously monitor the fundamentals and policies [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The domestic oil mill operating rate has rebounded, and the soybean meal inventory has increased slightly. The de - stocking trend of soybean meal since December is difficult to continue. The trading logic has returned to concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a bumper harvest in South America. The price of US soybean futures has fallen back to the previous bottom range. The price of soybean meal will follow the US soybean to fluctuate in the near future [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Palm oil continued to rebound, while soybean oil fell back after rising. The high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil showed an improvement in exports and a decline in production, alleviating the negative atmosphere. US soybeans also rebounded after a recent decline [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market has seen rising meal and falling oil recently, but the overall fluctuation range is not large. The domestic coastal oil mills maintain a zero - pressing state. The import data in November shows that the trade between China and Russia in the rapeseed sector is getting closer. The rapeseed futures price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6] Corn - The spot prices of corn in Northeast China and North Ports have slowly declined. The downstream procurement has no obvious increase after the phased supply - demand mismatch is alleviated. The Dalian corn futures 03 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures and spot markets have both risen slightly. It is expected that there will be a wave of second - fattening replenishment before the Spring Festival, which may support the current pig price. In the medium - to - long term, the pig price is likely to form a second bottom in the first half of next year, and the main 03 contract price is expected to be weak [8] Eggs - The egg contract has increased its position by more than 10,000 lots. The contracts corresponding to the off - season after the Spring Festival are weak, while the contracts from the second to the third quarter have increased in position and price. It is recommended to consider the 2 - 4 or 2 - 5 reverse spread strategy [9]