PP日报：震荡运行-20251223

Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall PP supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with the downstream order cycle shortening and some PP spot prices still falling. It is expected that PP will fluctuate weakly. Due to new plastic production capacity coming on - stream recently and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 19th, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.19 percentage points to 53.80% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. Among them, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, decreased by 0.06 percentage points to 44.00% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On December 23rd, there were few changes in the maintenance devices. The operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 82.5%, at a moderately low level, and the production proportion of the standard drawstring increased to around 28%. Recently, the inventory reduction of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [1][7] - On the cost side, with an oversupply of crude oil and the escalation of the geopolitical situation between the United States and Venezuela, the rebound of crude oil prices is limited. In terms of supply, the new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into production in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices has increased recently. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving and the like continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has stabilized after the decline, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, which has limited support for the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate sales [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The PP2605 contract increased its positions and oscillated downward, with a minimum price of 6,200 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,273 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,213 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.24%. The open interest increased by 10,464 lots to 533,959 lots [2] Spot - The spot prices of PP in most regions have declined. The drawstring is quoted at 5,930 - 6,280 yuan/ton [5] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on December 23rd, there were few changes in the maintenance devices, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 82.5%, at a moderately low level [1][7] - In terms of demand, as of the week ending December 19th, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.19 percentage points to 53.80% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. Among them, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, decreased by 0.06 percentage points to 44.00% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][7] - On Tuesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 710,000 tons week - on - week, 100,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, the inventory reduction of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [7] 3.4 Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose above $61 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat week - on - week at $740 per ton [9]