黑色金属日报-20251223

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆★ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon manganese: ★★☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is mainly in a range-bound pattern, and attention should be paid to changes in macro policies [2] - The iron ore market is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be mainly volatile, with market expectations for stimulus policies [4][5] - For silicon manganese, it is recommended to try long positions on dips [6] - For ferrosilicon, it is also recommended to try long positions on dips [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures price rose and then fell today. The apparent demand for thread improved slightly, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils both decreased, and the inventory reduction accelerated slightly, but the pressure still needs to be relieved [2] - Pig iron production continued to decline, supply pressure gradually eased, steel mill profits improved marginally, and the production reduction trend may slow down. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of environmental protection production restrictions in Tangshan and other places [2] - From the perspective of downstream industries, the decline in real estate investment continued to expand, the investment growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing continued to decline, domestic demand was still weak overall, steel exports remained high, and the actual impact of license management remains to be observed [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures price was weakly volatile today. On the supply side, global shipments decreased month-on-month but were still stronger than the same period last year. There is an expectation of a shipment rush by mines at the end of the year, and overseas shipments are expected to remain strong [3] - The domestic arrival volume decreased month-on-month but was still at a high level in the same period, and port inventory continued to accumulate [3] - On the demand side, terminal demand in the off-season is at a low level. Steel mills' profitability is poor, and due to environmental protection factors, pig iron production has decreased significantly. Steel mills' imported ore inventory has decreased, and there is currently no active replenishment demand [3] Coke - The coke futures price was strongly volatile today. The third round of price cuts for coke has been fully implemented, coking profits are average, and daily production has decreased slightly [4] - Coke inventory decreased slightly. Currently, downstream buyers are purchasing on a small scale as needed, and traders' purchasing willingness is average [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures price was widely volatile today. At the end of the year, some coal mines have reduced or suspended production due to safety production and the completion of annual production tasks [5] - Coking coal production decreased slightly, spot auction transactions were okay, and the transaction price increased slightly. Terminal inventory increased, and total coking coal inventory increased slightly, with production-side inventory also increasing slightly [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese futures price was mainly volatile today. Driven by the rebound in the futures price, the spot price of manganese ore increased [6] - There is a structural problem with the current manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursues the most cost-effective option and changes the manganese ore formula for furnace charging. If the amount of oxidized ore decreases significantly, the demand for cheaper semi-carbonate ore is likely to increase [6] - On the demand side, pig iron production decreased seasonally. Silicon manganese weekly production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti-involution" [6] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures price was mainly strong today. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and there is an expectation of a decline in electricity costs and blue carbon prices [7] - On the demand side, pig iron production rebounded to a high level. Export demand decreased to above 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact that is not significant. The production of magnesium metal increased month-on-month, and secondary demand increased marginally. Overall demand still has resilience [7] - Ferrosilicon supply decreased significantly, and inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti-involution" [7]