——流动性和机构行为周度观察：14天逆回购重启，同业存单利率下行-20251223

Report Highlights - 2025 Dec 15 - 19, the central bank's short - term reverse repurchase had a small net withdrawal of funds. From Dec 15 - 21, the net payment scale of government bonds increased compared with the previous week, most of the maturity yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit (CDs) declined, and the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased. From Dec 22 - 28, the expected net payment of government bonds is 30.66 billion yuan, and the maturity scale of inter - bank CDs is about 88.22 billion yuan. On Dec 19, the median durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds decreased by 0.20 years and increased by 0.04 years week - on - week respectively [2]. Core Viewpoints - The central bank carried out a small - scale net withdrawal of reverse repurchase funds and restarted the 14 - day reverse repurchase to deal with the cross - year funds. The decline in DR001 weighted average interest rate was supported by year - end fiscal expenditures, and the decline in bond yields was related to the pricing of loose funds. The net financing scale of government bonds increased slightly, and the net payment of government bonds will have a greater impact on the capital side in the future. Most of the maturity yields of inter - bank CDs declined, and the net financing amount remained negative. The average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased, and the durations of medium - long - term and short - term pure bond funds changed in different directions [6][7][8]. Summary by Section Funds - Central Bank Operations: From Dec 15 - 19, the central bank's 7 - day and 14 - day reverse repurchases had a net withdrawal of 1.1 billion yuan. From Dec 22 - 26, 7 - day reverse repurchases worth 45.75 billion yuan, medium - term lending facilities (MLF) worth 30 billion yuan, and treasury cash fixed deposits worth 12 billion yuan will mature [6]. - Fund Interest Rates: From Dec 15 - 19, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.27% and 1.35% respectively, down 1.5 and 1.0 basis points compared with Dec 8 - 12; the average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.44% and 1.51% respectively, down 1.1 and up 1.4 basis points compared with Dec 8 - 12. The continuous decline of DR001 was supported by fiscal expenditures, and the decline of bond yields on Dec 18 and 19 might be due to the lagged pricing of loose funds [7]. - Government Bond Financing: From Dec 15 - 21, the net payment scale of government bonds was about 1.606 billion yuan, an increase of about 130 million yuan compared with Dec 8 - 14. From Dec 22 - 28, the expected net payment scale of government bonds is 30.66 billion yuan, and the impact on the capital side will increase [7]. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - Maturity Yields: As of Dec 19, the maturity yields of 1M and 3M inter - bank CDs were 1.6125% and 1.5950% respectively, down 0.2 and 2.0 basis points compared with Dec 12; the 1Y maturity yield was 1.6350%, down 2.5 basis points compared with Dec 12. The decline was due to previous adjustments, expectations of interest rate cuts in early 2026, and the pricing of continuous loose funds [8]. - Net Financing Amount: From Dec 15 - 21, the net financing amount of inter - bank CDs was about - 6.71 billion yuan. From Dec 22 - 28, the expected maturity repayment amount is 88.22 billion yuan, and the scale of rolling over at maturity decreased marginally but remained at a high level [8]. Institutional Behavior - Leverage Ratio: From Dec 15 - 19, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.92%, higher than 107.54% in Dec 8 - 12 [9]. - Duration of Bond Funds: On Dec 19, the median duration of medium - long - term interest - style pure bond funds decreased by 0.20 years week - on - week to 4.71 years, at the 87.3% quantile since early 2022; the median duration of short - term interest - style pure bond funds increased by 0.04 years week - on - week to 1.54 years, at the 22.1% quantile since early 2022 [9].