固定收益市场周观察：债市波动加大

Group 1: Report's Core Views - Recent bond market fluctuations have increased due to intense fluctuations in monetary policy expectations, leading to frequent band - trading by trading funds and amplifying market volatility. The market's view is that funds are difficult to tighten, and the bond market is difficult to rise significantly. Trading funds can conduct band operations based on changes in monetary policy expectations, but the bond market has limited space until the factors restricting the entry of allocation funds subside [6][9]. - The main reason for the cautious attitude of long - term bond - allocating funds such as banks and insurance companies towards the 2026 bond market includes expectations of a "good start" in financial, inflation, and economic data at the beginning of the year, government bond issuance front - loading, insurance "good start" product structure, weakening bond profit - making effects, and the spread of credit risks in some industries [6][12]. - After entering 2026, attention can be paid to whether there are changes in bank behavior. On one hand, banks' indicator pressure eases, which may enhance their bond - allocating motivation; on the other hand, strong credit reserve at the beginning of the year may put pressure on the capital side and restrict their bond - allocating demand. Near the end of the year, changes in the certificate of deposit market can be observed [6][13]. Group 2: This Week's Fixed - Income Market Concerns Overseas Data Release - This week, the US will release data such as the October durable goods orders monthly rate, and Japan will release the November unemployment rate [14][15]. Interest - Rate Bond Issuance - This week, the issuance scale of interest - rate bonds is expected to be 240 billion yuan, at a relatively low level compared to the same period. Among them, treasury bonds are expected to be issued with a scale of about 188 billion yuan, local bonds with a scale of 2.04 billion yuan, and policy - financial bonds with a scale of about 50 billion yuan [15]. Group 3: Interest - Rate Bond Review and Outlook 14 - Day Reverse Repurchase Initiation - Near the end of the year, the central bank initiated 14 - day reverse repurchases on Thursday and Friday, with a total reverse - repurchase investment of 657.5 billion yuan and a net withdrawal of 11 billion yuan. After adding the 30 - billion - yuan maturity of central bank bills, the open - market operations had a net investment of 19 billion yuan. The money market showed an increase in volume and a decrease in price [17][18]. Bond Market Sentiment Repair - Last week, the bond market's optimistic sentiment increased, and with the central bank's support for the year - end, most bond market interest rates were repaired. The extremely long - term bonds fluctuated greatly, rising significantly and then falling back to the previous week's level. The yields of most periodic interest - rate bonds were repaired, with the 3 - year China Development Bank bonds and Export - Import Bank bonds having the largest decline of about 5.5bp [32]. Group 4: High - Frequency Data Production End - Most of the operating rates declined. The blast furnace operating rate decreased from 78.6% to 78.5%, the semi - steel tire operating rate decreased from 71.6% to 71.4%, the PTA operating rate remained flat at 73.8%, and the asphalt operating rate slightly decreased from 27.8% to 27.6%. The year - on - year decline in the average daily crude steel output in early December narrowed, with a reading of - 11.3% [36]. Demand End - The year - on - year decline in the wholesale and retail sales of passenger car manufacturers both improved compared to last week. The year - on - year decline in the commercial housing transaction area remained large. The land premium rate of 100 large - and medium - sized cities increased, and the land transaction area increased. The export indices SCFI and CCFI increased by 3.1% and 0.6% respectively [36]. Price End - Crude oil prices declined, while copper and aluminum prices increased. Coal prices were divided, with the thermal coal futures settlement price remaining flat and the coking coal futures settlement price increasing by 7.9%. In the mid - stream, the building materials composite price index, cement index, and glass index changed by 0.7%, 0.4%, and - 1.1% respectively. The output of rebar increased, and the inventory decreased rapidly to 3.13 million tons, with the futures price increasing by 1.4%. In the downstream consumer end, the prices of vegetables, fruits, and pork changed by - 1.3%, 1.6%, and 0.2% respectively [37].