银河期货白糖日报-20251223

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - International sugar prices are expected to be slightly stronger with bottom - side oscillations in the short term as the Brazilian sugarcane harvest nears completion and the supply - side pressure eases. The domestic sugar market is likely to experience an oscillatory adjustment trend after a sharp decline. Overall, the long - term trend of sugar is bearish, but the downside space is relatively limited [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - Futures Market: SR09 closed at 5,156 with a rise of 21 (0.41%), trading volume of 14,071 (down 1,935) and open interest of 58,513 (up 2,658); SR01 closed at 5,256 with a rise of 31 (0.59%), trading volume of 9,538 (down 7,967) and open interest of 38,283 (down 6,010); SR05 closed at 5,155 with a rise of 29 (0.57%), trading volume of 207,403 (down 80,386) and open interest of 508,950 (down 4,117) [3] - Spot Market: The spot price of sugar in Liuzhou was 5,380 (unchanged), in Kunming 5,190 (down 5), in Wuhan 5,610 (unchanged), in Nanning 5,310 (unchanged), in Rizhao 5,465 (unchanged), and in Xi'an 5,800 (unchanged). The corresponding basis values were 124, - 66, 354, 54, 209, and 544 respectively [3] - Monthly Spread: The SR05 - SR01 spread was - 101 (down 2), the SR09 - SR05 spread was 1 (down 8), and the SR09 - SR01 spread was - 100 (down 10) [3] - Import Profit: The quota - free import price from Brazil was 5,042, with a spread of 338 compared to Liuzhou and 423 compared to Rizhao; from Thailand, it was 5,070, with a spread of 310 compared to Liuzhou and 395 compared to Rizhao [3] 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Important Information - In Thailand, as of December 20, 2025, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the 2025/26 season was 7.8122 million tons, a decrease of 1.3675 million tons (14.9%) compared to the same period last year. Sugar production was 639,300 tons, a decrease of 106,200 tons (14.25%) [5] - Pakistan imported 76,700 tons of sugar in November 2025. The total sugar import volume in the first five months of the 2025/26 season (July - November) was 308,100 tons [5] - The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season is expected to reach 38 million tons, a 5% decrease from the previous season. The total sugar production in Brazil in the 2026/27 season is expected to be 41.8 million tons, lower than the previous year's 43.5 million tons [7] 3.2.2 Logical Analysis - Internationally, the Brazilian sugarcane harvest is approaching completion, and the supply pressure will gradually ease. The focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere, where most sugar production is in an increasing cycle. In the short term, the US sugar price is technically bottom - building and is expected to be slightly stronger with bottom - side oscillations [8] - Domestically, sugar mills are gradually starting production, and the supply and sales pressure will increase during the peak crushing period. However, considering the tightening of syrup and premix imports, the relatively high domestic sugar production cost, and the fact that the futures price has fallen close to the out - of - quota cost line, there is some support for the futures price. The long - term trend of sugar is bearish, but the downside space is relatively limited [8] 3.2.3 Trading Strategies - Single - side Trading: The Brazilian sugar season is nearing the end, and international sugar prices are showing signs of bottom - building. It is expected to be slightly stronger with bottom - side oscillations in the short term. The domestic sugar market is expected to experience an oscillatory adjustment trend after a sharp decline [9] - Arbitrage: Go long on January contracts and short on May contracts [10] - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [10] 3.3 Related Attachments - The attachments include graphs such as Guangxi's monthly sugar inventory, Yunnan's monthly sugar inventory, Guangxi's monthly sugar production, Yunnan's monthly sugar production, Liuzhou's white sugar spot price, the spot price spread between Liuzhou and Kunming, the basis of September sugar, the spread between May and September Zhengzhou sugar futures, the basis of January sugar, the spread between September and January Zhengzhou sugar futures, the basis of May sugar, and the spread between January and May Zhengzhou sugar futures, all with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND [11][12][16]