中原期货晨会纪要-20251223

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market may have entered a small year - end rally. Overseas liquidity has improved with the Bank of Japan's dovish rate hike and the Fed's dovish stance. A - share liquidity has also been enhanced by large - scale ETF subscriptions and the trend of RMB appreciation. The operation strategy is to focus on the policy mainline, use dips for layout, take profits during rallies, and keep a flexible position [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical and Agricultural Product Price Changes - Chemical Products: On December 23, 2025, among chemical products, PVC had the largest increase with a rise of 2.679% to 4,714.00 yuan, while yellow soybean 2 had the largest decrease in the agricultural products sector, dropping 7.489% to 3,434.00 yuan [4]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - The central bank introduced a one - time credit repair policy for small - amount personal overdue information. Vanke's 20 - billion - yuan bond extension plan was rejected again, but it won a 30 - trading - day grace period. Precious metals soared on December 22, with gold breaking through $4,440 per ounce and silver exceeding $69 per ounce [6]. - The State Council held a meeting on the preparation of the "15th Five - Year Plan". China's December LPR remained unchanged for the 7th consecutive month. The National People's Congress heard a report on the rectification of audit problems in the 2024 central budget [7]. - The Central Economic Work Conference deployed multiple key reform tasks. The draft of the Childcare Service Law was submitted for its first review [8]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Sugar: On December 22, the sugar price rose 0.75%. In the short term, it may show a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, with support near the cost line. One can consider going long on dips [11]. - Corn: The corn futures price was flat on December 22. It has entered a volatile pattern, and short - term interval trading can be considered [11]. - Pigs: The current hog futures market shows a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations. There is a weak rebound opportunity, and one can focus on the reverse spread of monthly spreads [11]. - Eggs: The egg market is still bearish, and the reverse spread of monthly spreads can be held [11]. - Cotton: On December 22, the cotton price rose 0.39%. In the short term, positive factors dominate, and one can go long on dips with support at 14,000 yuan [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The domestic urea market price is stable. The supply - demand pattern shows a double - reduction, and the UR2605 contract may run in the range of 1,650 - 1,750 yuan [12]. - Caustic Soda: The caustic soda market is in an oversupply situation, and the main contract continues to be weak [14]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal supply is relatively loose, and the coking coal and coke market tends to be volatile [13]. - Logs: The log market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price oscillates between 760 - 800 yuan [14]. - Pulp: The pulp price has broken through the previous range, but the supply exceeds demand. One should not chase the high price and can pay attention to the support near 5,550 - 5,580 yuan [14]. - Offset Printing Paper: The offset printing paper price has broken through the previous pressure level. One should not chase the high and can pay attention to the support at 4,000 yuan [14]. 3.3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - Copper and Aluminum: The copper and aluminum market is strong, and they continue to run at high levels, but macro risks should be noted [14]. - Alumina: The alumina market is in an oversupply situation and continues to be weak [15]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The rebar and hot - rolled coil market maintains an interval oscillation pattern, with rebar in the range of 3,000 - 3,200 yuan and hot - rolled coil in the range of 3,200 - 3,300 yuan [15]. - Ferroalloys: The ferroalloy market follows the trend of the black series. One should not chase the high price at the current high level [15]. - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate futures price has broken through the previous range. The short - term upward trend is strong, but the risk of high - level fluctuations increases [15]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - Stock Index Futures and Options: On December 22, the A - share market was strong. Trend investors can focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities among varieties, and volatility investors can short volatility through the short straddle strategy [16]. - Stock Index: The A - share market has shown signs of stabilization. The market may have entered a small year - end rally. One should focus on the policy mainline and keep a flexible position [18].