中国期货每日简报-20251224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 23, equity index and CGB futures increased, and most commodities rallied, with platinum, palladium, and lithium carbonate leading the gains. China's financial futures showed IH rising by 0.2%, IM falling by 0.2%, and TL rising by 0.9%. In commodity futures, platinum, lithium carbonate, and palladium were the top gainers, while ethylene glycol, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and log were the top decliners [10][11][12]. - The current supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the long - term demand expectation is robust. In the short term, downside risks are limited, and prices are expected to be range - bound with an upward bias. The Indonesian government's nickel ore policy adjustments have triggered market expectations of tight global nickel supply in 2026, which is expected to support nickel prices. Gold prices are well - underpinned by rising market expectations of a Fed interest rate cut in 2026, increased geopolitical uncertainties, and approaching holidays [17][23][28]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On December 23, equity index futures and CGB futures edged higher, and most commodities rallied. Platinum, palladium, and lithium carbonate led the gains. In financial futures, IH rose by 0.2%, IM fell by 0.2%, and TL rose by 0.9%. In commodity futures, the top - three gaining commodities were platinum, lithium carbonate, and palladium, while the top - three declining commodities were ethylene glycol, LPG, and log [10][11][12]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - Lithium Carbonate: On December 23, it rose 5.7% to 120360 yuan per ton. The market is focused on the resumption timeline of production at "Jianxiawo" and off - season demand. Currently, the delayed production resumption expectation is a major positive driver, and there is a divergence in market views on January demand. In the short term, prices are expected to be range - bound with an upward bias [16][17][18]. - Nickel: On December 23, it rose 3.9% to 123440 yuan per ton. The Indonesian government's three major nickel ore policy adjustments have triggered market expectations of tight global nickel supply in 2026, and cost - side increases are expected to support price increases [21][22][23]. - Gold: On December 23, it rose 2.7% to 1014.24 yuan per gram. Spot gold surged above $4400 per ounce for the first time in history. Rising market expectations of a Fed interest rate cut in 2026, increased geopolitical uncertainties, and approaching holidays support gold prices [27][28][29]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - Xi Jinping issued important instructions on the work of central state - owned enterprises, emphasizing their backbone and pillar role in the national economy since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China [32][35]. - Li Qiang pointed out that central SOEs should provide strong support for major infrastructure construction, accelerate the upgrading and digital - intelligent transformation of traditional infrastructure, and carry out new infrastructure construction in a moderately proactive way. He also emphasized formulating major projects and carriers to drive overall development [33][34][35]. 3.2.2 Industry News - As of December 8, the client equity of futures companies exceeded 2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of over 30% compared with the end of 2024, and medium - and long - term capital inflows optimized the investor structure [36].