马棕产需预期改善，昨日棕油相对偏强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the agricultural products market is complex, with different products showing various trends. For example, palm oil is expected to be relatively strong, while soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate. The prices of corn and starch are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and the price of live pigs is expected to oscillate widely. Natural rubber is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation, synthetic rubber is expected to be relatively strong, cotton is expected to strengthen, sugar is expected to oscillate with pressure, pulp is expected to oscillate upward, double - gum paper is expected to oscillate, and logs are expected to oscillate within a range [1][7][8][9][11][13][14][15][16][17][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - Viewpoint: The production and demand expectations of Malaysian palm oil have improved, and palm oil was relatively strong yesterday. - Logic: Due to the rise in crude oil, the weakening of the US dollar, and the buying of agricultural products, US soybeans rose on Monday. The domestic oil market showed differentiation, with palm oil being relatively strong. South American soybeans are expected to have a good harvest, and the planting of Brazilian soybeans is nearing completion. The demand for US soybeans is uncertain. The inventory of domestic soybeans is high, and the de - stocking speed of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. The production and demand of Malaysian palm oil are expected to improve, and the probability of a return to the production - reduction season and a decrease in inventory in the producing areas is high. The consumption of palm oil by biodiesel in Indonesia has increased year - on - year, and the inventory of Indonesian palm oil remains low. The supply of domestic rapeseed is tight recently, and the inventory of rapeseed oil continues to decline, but the supply of rapeseed oil is expected to increase in the later stage [1][5]. - Outlook: Soybean oil will oscillate, palm oil will oscillate strongly, and rapeseed oil will oscillate. The sentiment in the oil market has shown signs of stabilizing [2][5]. 3.2 Protein Meal - Viewpoint: The trading of US soybeans is light, and the double - meal oscillates within a narrow range. - Logic: Overseas Christmas has led to light trading of US soybeans. The crushing volume of US soybeans in November decreased monthly, and the export to China increased slowly. The sowing of Brazilian soybeans is nearly completed, and the sowing of Argentine soybeans is more than half. The production prospects of South American soybeans are optimistic. Domestically, the spot and basis are stable, the seasonal de - stocking of soybeans and soybean meal is slow, and the downstream breeding is in a loss state. The buying of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter of 2025 decreased by 15% year - on - year, and the buying in the first quarter of 2026 increased by 17% year - on - year. The relationship between China and Canada may improve, and the expectation of importing Canadian rapeseed has increased. - Outlook: US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal, and rapeseed meal will all oscillate [7]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - Viewpoint: The purchase and sales are light, and the price oscillates within a narrow range. - Logic: The price of domestic corn is falling slightly. In the upstream, farmers in the Northeast are reluctant to sell, and the purchase demand has declined. In the North China region, the purchase and sales of local corn have picked up, and the supply of grain has increased. In the downstream, feed enterprises have established a certain safety inventory, and feed mills mostly maintain rolling replenishment. The upstream is still reluctant to sell, and the downstream inventory is increasing but still at a relatively low historical level. The market is in a state of tight balance. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as the auction of old wheat, the progress of grain sales, and the downstream profits [8][9]. 3.4 Live Pigs - Viewpoint: Both supply and demand increase, and the pig price oscillates widely. - Logic: In the short term, the proportion of high - weight pigs for slaughter is increasing, and the supply of large pigs is large. In the medium term, the supply of commercial pigs is expected to be excessive before April 2026. In the long term, the production capacity of sows began to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and it is expected that the supply pressure of commercial pigs will ease after May 2026. The demand during the Winter Solstice has increased, and the average weight of pigs has increased. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate weakly. In the near - term, the price is expected to operate in a weak range. In the long - term, the price of the far - month contract is supported by the expectation of production - capacity reduction. The pig industry shows a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation" [9]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - Viewpoint: It maintains a narrow - range oscillation. - Logic: The natural rubber market continues to oscillate within a narrow range. The supply overseas has increased seasonally, and the raw material price is firm, which supports the disk to a certain extent. However, the downstream buying is light, and the sentiment in the market is bearish. Without strong expected differences and macro - market drive, it is expected to continue the range - bound oscillation. - Outlook: The price is expected to continue to oscillate, and it is difficult to have a trending market [11][12]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - Viewpoint: The disk trend continues to be strong. - Logic: The BR disk was driven by the good sentiment of the chemical industry plate and then slowly declined. The overall position of BR has been increasing, and it is favored by funds. The fundamental situation of butadiene has improved marginally, and the absolute price of the BR disk is relatively low. The price of butadiene has oscillated and risen recently, and the downstream synthetic rubber has a strong trend, which drives the products in the industrial chain to rise. However, the high - price transaction has been blocked, and the market has fallen back after rising. - Outlook: The supply - demand pattern of butadiene is expected to improve, but there is still pressure in the short term. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the medium term [13][14]. 3.7 Cotton - Viewpoint: The low - warehouse receipt and policy expectation drive the cotton price to continue to strengthen. - Logic: The reduction of US cotton production in the 25/26 season is small, the export signing progress is slow, and the external market has weak upward drive. In the domestic market, the supply - demand balance sheet of cotton may be in a tight balance. The consumption of cotton is expected to increase, and there is an expectation of tightening of the planting policy next year. The slow registration speed of warehouse receipts is also beneficial to the cotton price. - Outlook: In the short term, the price is driven by sentiment and is strong. In the long term, the valuation is low, and it is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips [14]. 3.8 Sugar - Viewpoint: The sugar price oscillates and rebounds, but the pressure still exists. - Logic: In the international market, the sugar - making ratio in Brazil has declined, but the cumulative sugar production is still expected to be high. In the Northern Hemisphere, the production progress in Thailand is slow, and the sugar production in India has increased year - on - year. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus supply in the new season. In the domestic market, the sugar production in November decreased year - on - year, and the supply will increase marginally as new sugar is gradually launched. - Outlook: In the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [15]. 3.9 Pulp - Viewpoint: It fluctuates in the recent high - level range, and the futures trend is dominated by funds. - Logic: The pulp futures fluctuated at the high - level of the recent operating range. The spot market is weak. The bullish factors include the increase in the US dollar price of broad - leaf pulp, the supply reduction expectation caused by the shutdown of pulp mills, the possible production reduction of other pulp mills, and the relatively high actual demand. The bearish factors include the difficulty in cost transmission of downstream paper, the seasonal decline in demand, and the high hedging pressure of traders. Overall, the bullish factors are more prominent, and the futures price is expected to oscillate upward. - Outlook: It is expected to oscillate strongly. The bullish news raises the bottom, but the hedging pressure above remains unchanged [16]. 3.10 Double - Gum Paper - Viewpoint: It operates in an oscillating manner. - Logic: The spot price of double - gum paper is stable, and some paper enterprises have announced price - increase plans for January 2026, which slightly boosts market confidence. The supply pressure in the market still exists, the upstream pulp price has risen continuously, and the paper mills have a strong demand for price increases. The downstream demand is cautious, and the social demand is still weak. The supply - demand relationship is in a weak balance. - Outlook: The pattern of weak supply - demand will continue, and the market will continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [17]. 3.11 Logs - Viewpoint: The fundamentals have improved marginally, and the logs oscillate within a range. - Logic: The current contradiction in the log market lies in the realization process of weak reality and strong expectation. In the short term, there is a small space for replenishment in processing plants, and the outbound volume is expected to be stable. The supply pressure has gradually eased. The overseas shipping volume is expected to decline from December to January, and the pressure of arrival at the port is expected to ease from January to February. The 03 contract has relatively strong game characteristics. - Outlook: The fundamentals have improved marginally, and the supply pressure has eased. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunities of 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage and low - buying the 03 contract [19]. 3.12 Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on December 23, 2025, showed that the commodity index, the commodity 20 index, the industrial product index, and the PPI commodity index all increased to varying degrees [177]. - Agricultural Product Index: On December 23, 2025, the agricultural product index increased by 0.24% on the day, decreased by 0.03% in the past 5 days, decreased by 0.87% in the past month, and decreased by 3.82% since the beginning of the year [178].