广期所调整铂钯保证金比例，警惕高位波动加剧风险

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - On December 23, 2025, the GFEX platinum main contract hit the daily limit again, closing at 619.95 yuan/gram with a 10% increase; the palladium main contract closed at 532.55 yuan/gram with a 5.52% increase. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) announced that starting from the settlement on December 25, 2025, the daily limit for platinum and palladium futures contracts will be adjusted to 10%, and the trading margin standard will be adjusted to 12% [1]. - The platinum price continues to rise due to spot shortages and loose market liquidity. The domestic - NYMEX (tax - included) price difference of platinum is as high as 57.4 yuan/gram, and there is an arbitrage opportunity. However, due to issues such as hedging quota restrictions, the short - term price difference may remain high. In the future, South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, still faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. The platinum market is in a structural expansion stage, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as an important growth point, and expanding demand in jewelry and investment. The "interest rate cut + soft landing" combination will further increase the long - term price elasticity. It is expected that the platinum price will fluctuate upward [2]. - The palladium price continues to rise due to macro - support and geopolitical tensions. The US Department of Commerce is investigating the import of unforged palladium from Russia, causing a temporary tightening of palladium supply in other regions. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium is loosening, the short - term spot shortage makes the price firm. With the Fed entering the interest - rate cut cycle again, the palladium price has some support at the bottom. It is expected that the short - term palladium price will fluctuate upward [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - Main Logic: Platinum prices are accelerating upwards, and the domestic - foreign price difference is expanding. As of December 23, the premium of the GFEX platinum main contract at the domestic closing time compared to NYMEX platinum (tax - included) is 57.4 yuan/gram, much higher than the import cost, creating an arbitrage opportunity. However, due to hedging quota limitations, the short - term price difference may remain high. The GFEX adjusted the daily limit and margin ratio on December 23, and price volatility risks should be watched out for. In terms of supply, South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. In terms of demand, the platinum market is in a structural expansion stage, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as a future growth point, and expanding demand in jewelry and investment. The "interest rate cut + soft landing" combination will increase long - term price elasticity [2]. - Outlook: With a healthy supply - demand fundamental and positive macro - expectations, the platinum price is expected to fluctuate upward. The short - term increase in volatility increases risks. It is recommended to gradually take profits or wait and see. The strategy of going long on platinum and short on palladium can be held or temporarily take profits, and opportunities for domestic - foreign positive arbitrage can be seized [2]. Palladium - Main Logic: The current geopolitical issue in Russia is a key factor affecting supply. The US Department of Commerce is investigating the import of unforged palladium from Russia, and the report has not been released, leading to a temporary tightening of palladium supply in other regions. In terms of demand, palladium faces significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium is loosening, the short - term spot shortage makes the price firm. With the Fed entering the interest - rate cut cycle again, the palladium price has some support at the bottom [3]. - Outlook: Due to spot shortages and a favorable macro - environment, the short - term palladium price will fluctuate upward. The short - term sharp increase also increases risks. It is recommended to gradually take profits or wait and see. The strategy of going long on platinum and short on palladium can be held or temporarily take profits, and opportunities for domestic - foreign positive arbitrage can be seized [3]. Commodity Indexes - Special Indexes: The commodity index is 2306.25, up 0.47%; the commodity 20 index is 2645.83, up 0.43%; the industrial products index is 2233.41, up 0.31%; the PPI commodity index is 1381.84, up 0.15% [48]. - Sector Indexes: The non - ferrous metals index on December 23, 2025, is 2593.96, with a daily increase of 0.01%, a 5 - day increase of 1.68%, a 1 - month increase of 5.20%, and a year - to - date increase of 12.37% [49].