申万宏源证券晨会报告-20251224

Group 1: Refining Industry Overview - The refining industry is expected to improve as costs have returned to a comfortable zone, with oil prices stabilizing in a neutral range due to OPEC's production increases and rising non-OPEC output [11] - Current refining product demand is at historically low levels, providing a high safety margin for future performance improvements [11] - Capital expenditure growth in the refining sector is slowing, with some companies nearing the end of their capital spending cycles, which may lead to sustained high dividend levels and potential increases in dividend yields as performance improves [11] Group 2: Investment Analysis - The refining sector is facing both opportunities and challenges, with a significant recovery potential in profitability as the competitive landscape becomes more favorable for leading companies [11] - The demand for refined oil products is expected to decline, accelerating the transition to chemical products, while the supply of olefins is slowing, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [11] - Investment recommendations include focusing on high-quality private refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong, as well as state-owned refineries like Huajin Co [11] Group 3: AI Industry Insights - ByteDance's AI strategy focuses on enhancing multi-modal agent capabilities and cost advantages, aiming to optimize complex task handling and multi-modal interactions [10] - The company is leveraging its C-end business to support model training, creating a feedback loop that enhances its AI capabilities [14] - The competitive landscape in the AI cloud market shows ByteDance's Volcano Engine leading in the MaaS segment, driven by its model capabilities and competitive pricing [14]