2025-12-24：能源化工日报-20251224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm the price trend [4]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The overall supply is high, and the market is expected to be in a low - level consolidation. A wait - and - see approach for single - side trading is recommended [7]. - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short term due to reserve demand and increased compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. With export policy and cost support, the price is expected to bottom out while oscillating. Buying on dips is recommended [11]. - For rubber, a neutral approach is currently taken. Short - term trading with quick entry and exit is advised, and partial closing of the hedge position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [15]. - For PVC, the industry has low comprehensive profits and high supply. With domestic demand entering the off - season and only some support from exports, the fundamental situation is poor. A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended in the medium term [19]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low with large room for upward valuation repair. Before the first quarter of next year, going long on the non - integrated profit of styrene is recommended [22]. - For polyethylene, OPEC +'s plan to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026 may support oil prices. Although the downward space of PE valuation is limited, high warehouse receipts suppress the market. Buying the LL5 - 9 spread on dips is recommended [25]. - For polypropylene, with expected supply surplus in the cost side and high inventory pressure, there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The market may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern in the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [28]. - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. With a neutral valuation, opportunities for going long on dips should be watched [31]. - For PTA, the supply has high maintenance in the short term, and demand will decline due to the off - season. PTA processing fees have limited upward space, and opportunities for going long on dips based on expectations should be watched [34]. - For ethylene glycol, although the domestic supply situation has improved due to unexpected maintenance, the overall load is still high and imports are at a high level. The port inventory build - up cycle will continue. Attention should be paid to the risk of a market reversal caused by further increases in maintenance [36]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Information: The main crude oil futures on INE closed up 8.30 yuan/barrel, a 1.92% increase, at 440.90 yuan/barrel. China's crude oil weekly data showed that the arrival inventory increased by 0.29 million barrels to 206.16 million barrels, a 0.14% month - on - month increase [2]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm the price trend [4]. Methanol - Market Information: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu decreased by 15 yuan/ton, in Lunan by 5 yuan/ton, and in Henan by 10 yuan/ton. The main futures contract increased by 1 yuan/ton, closing at 2156 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was - 179 yuan [6]. - Strategy Viewpoint: After the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The overall supply is high, and the market is expected to be in a low - level consolidation. A wait - and - see approach for single - side trading is recommended [7]. Urea - Market Information: Regional spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan/ton, and in Hubei by 10 yuan/ton. The main futures contract increased by 23 yuan/ton, closing at 1721 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was - 31 yuan/ton [9]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short term due to reserve demand and increased compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. With export policy and cost support, the price is expected to bottom out while oscillating. Buying on dips is recommended [11]. Rubber - Market Information: Rubber prices were in an oscillating consolidation. The buying demand for winter storage was a bullish factor. The long - side believed in limited rubber production growth in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increases, and improved demand expectations in China, while the short - side cited uncertain macro expectations, off - season demand, and potential under - performance of supply benefits [13]. - Strategy Viewpoint: A neutral approach is currently taken. Short - term trading with quick entry and exit is advised, and partial closing of the hedge position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [15]. PVC - Market Information: The PVC05 contract increased by 147 yuan, closing at 4738 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4420 (+80) yuan/ton, the basis was - 318 (-67) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 128 (+1) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 77.4%, a 2.1% month - on - month decrease. Factory inventory was 32.9 million tons (-1.6), and social inventory was 105.7 million tons (-0.3) [17]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The industry has low comprehensive profits and high supply. With domestic demand entering the off - season and only some support from exports, the fundamental situation is poor. A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended in the medium term [19]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5315 yuan/ton with no change, and the active contract closed at 5425 yuan/ton with no change. The spot price of styrene increased by 50 yuan/ton to 6600 yuan/ton, and the active contract closed at 6509 yuan/ton, a 31 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 69.13%, a 1.02% increase, and the inventory at Jiangsu ports increased by 0.46 million tons to 13.93 million tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products decreased by 1.67% to 40.60% [21]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low with large room for upward valuation repair. Before the first quarter of next year, going long on the non - integrated profit of styrene is recommended [22]. Polyolefin (Polyethylene and Polypropylene) Polyethylene - Market Information: The main contract of polyethylene closed at 6296 yuan/ton, a 56 - yuan increase. The spot price was 6300 yuan/ton with no change. The upstream operating rate was 82.34%, a 0.76% month - on - month increase. The production enterprise inventory increased by 1.72 million tons to 48.78 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.20 million tons to 3.56 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 42.45%, a 0.55% month - on - month decrease [24]. - Strategy Viewpoint: OPEC +'s plan to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026 may support oil prices. Although the downward space of PE valuation is limited, high warehouse receipts suppress the market. Buying the LL5 - 9 spread on dips is recommended [25]. Polypropylene - Market Information: The main contract of polypropylene closed at 6158 yuan/ton, a 39 - yuan increase. The spot price was 6250 yuan/ton with no change. The upstream operating rate was 78.05%, a 0.31% month - on - month increase. The production enterprise inventory increased by 0.07 million tons to 53.78 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 0.9 million tons to 19.83 million tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.07 million tons to 6.75 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.8%, a 0.19% month - on - month decrease [27]. - Strategy Viewpoint: With expected supply surplus in the cost side and high inventory pressure, there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The market may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern in the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [28]. Polyester (PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol) PX - Market Information: The PX03 contract increased by 44 yuan, closing at 7302 yuan. The CFR price of PX increased by 4 dollars to 896 dollars. The Chinese PX operating rate was 88.1% with no change, and the Asian operating rate was 78.9%, a 0.4% month - on - month decrease. In December, South Korea's PX exports to China in the first and middle ten - days were 28.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8 million tons. The inventory at the end of October was 407.4 million tons, a 4.8 - million - ton month - on - month increase [30]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. With a neutral valuation, opportunities for going long on dips should be watched [31]. PTA - Market Information: The PTA05 contract increased by 42 yuan, closing at 5082 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 70 yuan to 4955 yuan. The PTA operating rate was 73.2%, a 0.5% month - on - month decrease. The downstream operating rate was 91.2% with no change. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on December 12 was 215 million tons, a 1.9 - million - ton month - on - month decrease [32]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply has high maintenance in the short term, and demand will decline due to the off - season. PTA processing fees have limited upward space, and opportunities for going long on dips based on expectations should be watched [34]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The EG05 contract decreased by 112 yuan, closing at 3623 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 50 yuan to 3563 yuan. The ethylene glycol operating rate was 72%, a 2% month - on - month increase. The port inventory was 71.6 million tons, a 3 - million - ton month - on - month increase [35]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Although the domestic supply situation has improved due to unexpected maintenance, the overall load is still high and imports are at a high level. The port inventory build - up cycle will continue. Attention should be paid to the risk of a market reversal caused by further increases in maintenance [36].