中信期货晨报：国债期货延续反弹，股指窄幅震荡-20251224

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The provided content does not mention the report's industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - The overseas macro - environment in 2026 continues to warm up. The combination of "low inflation + weak reality + Fed chair change" in the US is conducive to Fed easing, and the quality of January's economic data is expected to return to normal. The US's "loose fiscal + loose monetary" policy promotes economic prosperity. The ECB maintained interest rates in December and raised GDP forecasts for this year and next. Japan's interest rate hike was in line with expectations, not a radical tightening, with an upward - adjusted 2025 GDP growth forecast and a maintained 2026 forecast [7] - In the domestic macro - environment, the National Housing and Urban - Rural Construction Work Conference in December 2023 deployed work for 2026, including urban renewal and stabilizing the real estate market. The underground pipeline renovation work is a highlight, and it is expected that the capital investment will increase slightly next year. In November, the year - on - year growth of social retail sales was 1.3%, falling short of expectations, with weakening commodity retail being the main drag and continuous improvement in service consumption. Manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investment continued to weaken, while exports were a strong support [7] - In asset allocation, the macro - environment favors the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors. For precious metals, the logic of gold's rise is still clear with a high safety margin, while silver has increased volatility risk after a sharp rise. For non - ferrous metals, there are low - buying and long - holding opportunities for commodities with more supply disruptions like copper, aluminum, and tin, and attention should be paid to lithium carbonate with good supply - demand performance. The domestic equity sector should be defensive at the end of the year and during the policy window period [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Price and Fluctuation - Stock Index Futures: The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Futures was at 3025.6, up 0.24%; the CSI 500 Futures was at 7133.2, up 0.14%; the CSI 1000 Futures was at 7197.4, down 0.09% [3] - Treasury Bond Futures: The 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures was at 102.526, up 0.06%; the 5 - year was at 106.025, up 0.16%; the 10 - year was at 108.22, up 0.22%; the 30 - year was at 112.83, [increase data seems incorrect in the text] [3] - Foreign Exchange: The US Dollar Index was at 98.2603, unchanged; the Euro - US Dollar exchange rate was at 1.1762; the US Dollar - Japanese Yen exchange rate was at 157.028 [3] - Interest Rates: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was at 1.33, unchanged; the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield was at 1.84, down 0.6 bp; the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was at 4.17, up 1 bp [3] - Hot Industries: Construction, steel, non - ferrous metals, and other industries showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the construction industry was at 3694, up 1.38% daily, 1.54% weekly, 1.05% monthly, 8.75% quarterly, and 7.37% year - to - date [3] - Overseas Commodities: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 57.95, up 2.49% daily; COMEX gold was at 4480.6, up 2.56% daily [3] - Domestic Commodities: The container shipping route to Europe was at 1806.6, down 3.48% daily; domestic gold was at 1014.24, up 1.34% daily [4] 3.2 Market Analysis by Sector 3.2.1 Financial Sector - Stock Index Futures: Double factors boost the market, but continuous upward movement requires waiting. The short - term judgment is a volatile increase, and the focus is on the situation of incremental funds [8] - Stock Index Options: Use options for hedging to increase returns. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on the liquidity of the options market [8] - Treasury Bond Futures: The sentiment of long - term bonds is still weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on the implementation of monetary policy [8] 3.2.2 Precious Metals Sector - Gold/Silver: Driven by the expected liquidity easing and the tight supply of silver in the spot market. The short - term judgment is a volatile increase, and the focus is on the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trends [8] 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - Container Shipping to Europe: Supported by pre - Spring Festival shipments in the near - term; in the long - term, the focus is on the risk of resuming flights. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on the 2026 shipping company's flight resumption plan, year - end long - term contract signing freight rates, and the support of pre - Spring Festival shippers' shipments on freight rates [8] 3.2.4 Black Building Materials Sector - Various products like steel, iron ore, coke, etc., are in a volatile state. For example, steel inventories continue to decline, and the short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with the focus on the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron water production [8] 3.2.5 Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector - Products such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., show different market trends. For example, copper prices are in a high - level volatile state, and the short - term judgment is a volatile increase, with the focus on supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, etc [8] 3.2.6 Energy Chemical Sector - Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical factors and are in a volatile state. Chemical products have different trends, such as PX showing a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on factors like crude oil price fluctuations and macro - level changes [10] 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - Products such as grains, oils, and livestock show different trends. For example, the price of live pigs is under pressure in the short - term, and the short - term judgment is a volatile decline, with the focus on factors like breeding sentiment and policies [10]